County officials warn of likely federal shutdown and outline early contingency steps

Coconino County staff told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday they expect a federal funding lapse and outlined steps the county has taken and will take to prepare for reduced federal services and delayed federal payments.

Deputy County Manager Eric Peterson said county staff were closely tracking developments in Washington and that “we are 99.9% sure that a shutdown will happen tomorrow,” based on conversations with officials in D.C. He and county government‑affairs staff said a shutdown could last longer than the 2018 episode and potentially stretch 45–60 days, but they emphasized the outlook remained uncertain and dependent on congressional action.

Keith (government affairs) reviewed potential sector impacts: national park operations and federal land closures would likely be affected, permitting and environmental reviews could slow, and the county could face requests to help maintain access and services in popular recreation sites. Peterson said the county had drafted a letter to the governor asking the state to consider funding or assistance to keep critical recreation areas — including the Grand Canyon — accessible in the event of a federal shutdown.

Michelle Axland, director of Coconino County Health and Human Services, outlined program‑level impacts. She said Medicaid had funding for roughly one quarter and that some HHS contracts and grants would continue briefly, but programs such as rental assistance and some community service block grants would be disrupted. “WIC is our biggest concern at this moment. There is enough funding in the state to last two to three weeks for food benefits; county WIC staffing has enough to last about eight weeks,” Axland said. She also noted that the SAMHSA‑funded suicide hotline payments and ongoing grants already in the pipeline are expected to continue for now.

Staff and supervisors also discussed the potential budgetary and economic ripple effects to rural communities that depend on federal payments, including impact aid for schools; Keith said Impact Aid payments to some local districts total millions of dollars annually and that paused federal payments could force districts to borrow or cut services.

Supervisors praised the county's proactive contingency work, including a reserve fund the board previously set up for budget stabilization. “We have taken proactive steps,” Chair Patrice Horstman said, adding the county would need to work with state officials and local partners if the shutdown persists. The board asked staff to return with updates as the federal picture evolves.