Local and state economy slowing but not in recession, CU economist tells Adams County budget retreat

An economic presentation to the Adams County Board of County Commissioners on the county’s 2026 budget forecast found slower growth statewide but no imminent national recession.

Dr. Richard Wobekind, a longtime economist at the University of Colorado’s Leeds School of Business, told commissioners the national baseline projection is modest growth — about 1.5% GDP — and that Colorado’s strong multi-year expansion has slowed markedly in the last 12–21 months. "The economy is very slow footing, but nonetheless, not recessionary," Wobekind said during his briefing.

Why it matters: county revenues that feed the budget — particularly retail sales tax and portions of personal income tax flows to local services — are driven by employment and consumption. Wobekind emphasized that slower job growth reduces upside in sales-tax receipts and that Adams County needs to plan for a flatter near-term outlook.

Key details presented to the board: - Employment: Colorado’s employment growth has declined relative to its 2010–2023 run; Wobekind placed recent year-over-year employment growth in the low single digits for the state and noted pockets of negative growth across some metropolitan statistical areas. Adams County’s local employment was presented as stronger than the statewide average, but with slowing labor‑force growth. - Labor market dynamics: Wobekind highlighted the drop in net international immigration as a significant factor reducing labor‑force growth. He also noted that the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen substantially from the post‑COVID peak, and that mismatches between job openings and worker skills remain important for local workforce policy. - Consumption and personal income: National personal income and consumption continue growing but at a slower rate; household wealth (housing and securities) helped maintain consumption since 2021. Wobekind flagged weakening savings rates and rising delinquencies in some categories (for example student loans and subprime auto loans) as risks for lower‑income households. - Interest rates and housing: Wobekind explained that short‑term Federal Reserve moves do not automatically lower long‑term mortgage rates, and he urged the commissioners to watch long‑term yields and federal debt buying patterns. He said Colorado’s one‑year home‑price appreciation has cooled and is currently among the slowest in the country — a factor that is easing inflation pressures measured in regional CPI components.

Board questions and discussion focused on workforce development, the role of higher education and trade programs in matching people to jobs, and how local permitting and construction activity appear to be outperforming statewide trends. Commissioners asked Wobekind whether to expect a persistent downturn in growth; he said the county should treat 2026 as a stabilization year and plan conservatively for 2027 when legislative changes and national shifts could reduce taxable values and revenues.

Where this leads: county staff told the board they will use the baseline/optimistic/pessimistic scenario framework from the presentation when preparing the draft budget and revenue forecasts, and will avoid locking recurring spending into the budget that cannot be supported if 2027 collections soften.