Central Asia shifts away from Russian orbit as Ukraine war reshapes trade and security

WASHINGTON — Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted the five Central Asian states to accelerate a long-running shift away from heavy reliance on Moscow, speakers told a U.S. Helsinki Commission briefing on the region.

Dr. Eric Rudenscholt, a former National Security Council director for Central Asia and senior fellow at the Caspian Policy Center, said, “the war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed Central Asia,” and that the crisis has forced capitals to “assert their sovereignty, rebalance their economies and seek stable partnerships beyond their immediate borders.”

Why it matters: Central Asian presidents have resisted endorsing Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory and have largely avoided committing troops. Sanctions on Russia and the disruption of traditional trade routes have created both immediate economic strain and incentives to develop alternative transport and energy links. Witnesses argued that…