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Consultant finds TVUSD bond feasible; board asks advisory group for more work, postpones decision to Oct. 14
Summary
A True North Research survey of likely 2026 voters found a bond could clear the 55% Prop 39 threshold in several configurations; the board agreed to let the district advisory committee refine projects, tax-rate options and ballot language and to return Oct. 14.
A bond feasibility survey conducted by True North Research returned results the district consultant described as a pathway to a viable school bond for Temecula Valley Unified — but trustees asked for more analysis before any decision to place a measure on the 2026 ballot.
Tim McLarney, president of True North Research, told the board the firm completed 858 likely-voter interviews, yielding a margin of sampling error of ±3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The poll showed strong initial support for a general education bond: an initial 75‑word ballot test generated 62% yes and 26% no. When the firm tested tax-rate sensitivities, support ranged from about 49% at $20 per $100,000 assessed valuation to 60% at $10 per $100,000; McLarney translated those rates into annual costs for a typical homeowner ($95 and $48 per year, respectively) and noted the lower, household-anchored figures returned higher support.
The poll also found majority backing for typical bond projects — repairs to aging roofs and electrical systems, HVAC upgrades, STEM and career-technical facilities upgrades — and that informational arguments about needs increased support; a set of opposition arguments cooled support by roughly five percentage points but did not push the proposal under the 55% Prop 39 threshold in True North’s modeled scenarios.
After the presentation trustees discussed next steps and expressed interest in more detail on project lists, current bond spending and overlapping debt currently on the rolls. Several trustees asked the district’s bond advisory team to dig into project prioritization, tax-rate tradeoffs and communications; the board took consensus to return the item to the Oct. 14 meeting so the advisory committee could report back with a more detailed financial and project plan.
McLarney cautioned the board that a poll is a snapshot, not a guarantee, and that campaign organization, messaging and the broader 2026 election environment would all influence final results. The board did not place any bond measure on a ballot at the meeting; it directed staff and the advisory council to continue analysis and return with recommendations.
