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Virginia revenues beat forecast as labor market softens and federal grant pauses linger
Summary
At a Sept. committee meeting, Virginia officials reported August revenues above expectations driven by payroll withholding even as the labor market shows signs of softening and paused federal grants — including dozens tied to higher education — remain under review.
At a meeting of the Virginia Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee on Sept. 9, Secretary Cummings reported August general fund collections were stronger than forecast, driven primarily by payroll withholding.
The secretary told the committee that collections grew 6.8% year over year for August and that year‑to‑date growth was about 7%, roughly $287 million; for the month revenues exceeded forecast by about $122 million, roughly a 6.2% positive variance. “I feel like I'm just reporting the facts,” Secretary Cummings said as he reviewed the numbers.
The nut graf: The August numbers give the state an early cushion heading into the fall budget process, but officials cautioned the committee to watch labor market trends and the impact of federal actions that have paused or…
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