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Commission staff outline plan to validate sentencing risk instrument using older development data
Summary
Staff said they will validate — not redesign — the sentencing risk instrument because it was developed from older data; the validation will check whether the tool still predicts as intended using current data and standard statistical methods.
Staff told the commission that the sentencing risk instrument included in the guideline materials was developed with older data and must be validated to confirm it still operates as intended. Staff emphasized the work is validation — confirming predictive performance with updated cases — not a redesign or reweighting of individual factors.
Staff said validation requires statistical analysis and a longer follow‑up period than earlier evaluations allowed. They framed validation as a necessary check to ensure the instrument's predictions remain aligned with current case outcomes and stated the research unit will present statistical results to the commission when the work is complete.
Ending: Staff will continue the validation work and present results with supporting methodology and timelines in future meetings.
