Treasurer: revenue outlook improves; five-year forecast still projects late-year deficit

Treasurer Becky Jacobs presented the board with an updated forecast and the monthly August financial report, saying recent revenue estimates and state-aid simulations improved the district''s near-term position but longer-term pressure remains.

Jacobs said projected general-fund revenue for fiscal 2026 rose from about $81.4 million in the May forecast to about $84.3 million in the current projection, driven largely by higher real-estate collections and updated ODE state-aid simulations. That change reduced the projected deficit in the current year from roughly $4.4 million to about $1.08 million and lowered the previously forecasted drop in ending cash balance.

Why it matters: The five-year forecast guides levy planning, budget priorities and capital decisions. Even modest changes in property tax collections, state aid inputs or negotiated employee costs can materially affect the forecast.

Key numbers and assumptions - Fiscal 2026 revenue: May forecast $81.4 million; October/updated projection about $84.3 million (variance ~$2.6 million). Real-estate values and timing accounted for most of the change. - Current-year deficit: May projection was a $4.4 million deficit spend; updated projection reduced that to about $1.08 million. - Ending cash: Forecasted ending cash balance changed from $39.8 million to $35.1 million due to updated assumptions and transfers. - State aid: Jacobs said the district will likely receive about $305,000 tied to the five-star result ("$13 per pupil per star"), and she carried an increased state-aid estimate forward in the forecast. - Five-year view: The district remains positive through fiscal year four but shows a negative balance in the fifth forecast year (just under $4 million negative in the illustration), driven in part by prior transfers into capital accounts and ongoing expenditure growth.

Expenditures and risks Jacobs discussed key expenditure drivers: negotiated salary and benefit agreements, health-insurance claims and projected insurance-rate increases (she used a 12% projection for health in the next year), utilities and materials for a new building and special-education staffing additions. She noted an $8.5 million transfer into Fund 070 (capital improvements) that reduces general-fund carryover and could be used to shore up later years but would consume PI dollars.

Monthly financials The August monthly report showed revenues about $1.8 million higher than expected year to date (mostly real-estate collections). Expenditures were about $480,000 under budget year to date, with timing differences in purchase services and supplies.

Board action and next steps The board approved the monthly financial report on a roll-call vote after a motion and second. Jacobs said she will continue monitoring income-tax-sharing receipts with the city to determine whether recent higher collections are sustainable or timing anomalies.

Ending Trustees praised the district''s fiscal stewardship while acknowledging continuing pressures. Jacobs urged prudence and noted the district will watch state legislative changes and pending property-tax reform discussions that could affect future forecasts.