Cherokee County planners present 2050 growth projections and tools to steer development

Cherokee County planning staff told the Board of Commissioners on Sept. 16 that the county will likely meet projected housing demand by 2050, but officials must decide where that development occurs.

Ethan Van Steenberg, senior planner, summarized five population models and corresponding housing estimates and said even the most conservative projection would yield a county population in the mid-300,000s while the high-end model would put the county near 466,000. "In summary, what that means is we're going to meet our housing needs. Pretty much regardless of the projection, we will meet our housing needs," Van Steenberg said.

The presentation translated those population scenarios into housing units: the county currently has about 109,000 housing units; buildout under current zoning would allow roughly 160,700 units. Using permit history and recent growth trends produces housing estimates clustered around 160,000–168,000 units, Van Steenberg said.

Why it matters: commissioners said their concern is not whether housing will be built but where. Van Steenberg's maps and charts showed that under recent trends roughly 43% of future new housing could come from rural development (turning farmland into single-family lots), with only about 8% from multifamily and roughly 30% from city centers. He argued that market forces, lending practices and the relative ease of building on…