CAP official urges vigilance as Colorado River runoff falls; Arizona launches coalition to defend CAP

Mitch Basky, stakeholder outreach coordinator for the Central Arizona Project, told the Oro Valley Water Utility Commission on a September meeting that long‑term drying and higher temperatures across the Colorado River Basin have reduced runoff and left major reservoirs at substantially lower levels, putting pressure on deliveries to Arizona communities.

“Essentially, what you’re looking at in the last five years is we’ve had, either above or close to normal, snowpack, but the runoff has been very, very disappointing,” Basky said. He described “aridification of the basin” that leaves drier soils that absorb more meltwater and shorten the runoff period.

The update focused on operational and political risks for CAP, the 336‑mile system that delivers Colorado River water to central and southern Arizona. Basky said Lake Powell and Lake Mead were about 30% full at the end of the prior month and that long‑term average inflows have fallen: “the average for the last 60 years about 10,400,000 acre‑feet, the average for the last 30 or so years 9.6, and then the average during this long drought has been 8.3.”

Why it matters: CAP supplies are a primary source for many Arizona cities, and Oro Valley depends on CAP allocations and recharge projects to limit groundwater pumping. Basky told the commission that continued low inflows, constrained operating decisions at Lake Powell, and negotiations among the seven basin states could produce deeper cuts to deliveries if no consensus emerges.

Basky described two conservation categories used in recent years: system conservation, where water is left in the river with no future claim, and intentionally created surplus (ICS), which is left in the system but remains legally available to the party that created it. He said CAP and Arizona have relied on mitigation tools for tribal and municipal deliveries but that some mitigation will end at the end of the year: “That mitigation goes away, at the end of this year. In 2026, it will no longer be mitigated.”

Basky also summarized recent voluntary conservation programs. He said Arizona and CAP committed to roughly 3,000,000 acre‑feet of savings for calendar years 2024–26 and that, to date, participants have saved about 3,600,000 acre‑feet; Mexico has left about 400,000 acre‑feet under a separate minute, producing about 4,000,000 acre‑feet of total conservation credited to Lake Mead.

On compensation, Basky said Arizona and CAP have paid roughly $300–$400 per acre‑foot for multi‑year conservation offers, while some California irrigation districts received higher per‑acre‑foot payments: “If you agreed to conserve for three running years, you got $400 an acre‑foot. For California irrigation districts, they were getting closer to $700 an acre‑foot.”

Basky said the Bureau of Reclamation has asked the seven basin states for a consensus approach by early November; if the states do not reach agreement, he said, the secretary of the interior will release federal alternatives in a draft environmental impact statement. He described a Lower Basin proposal that would allocate shares based on a percentage of a rolling three‑year natural flow (a 60/40 split in one Lower Basin concept), and he said the Upper Basin states have so far refused mandatory cuts.

Brenda Berman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, and other leaders launched a messaging effort called the Coalition for Protecting Arizona’s Lifeline to rebut narratives that Arizona misuses water. “Through this coalition, Arizona leaders are uniting to protect our share of the Colorado River and the system that delivers it, the Central Arizona Project,” Berman said in prepared remarks included in the meeting. The coalition has posted materials and short videos and is coordinating statements from mayors, tribal leaders and water utilities.

Oro Valley Mayor Joe Winfield appears in a short coalition video shown to the commission describing local conservation steps: “In Oro Valley, we’ve taken a forward‑looking, comprehensive approach to water sustainability. We’re reducing our reliance on groundwater by maximizing the use of reclaimed water in our full CAP allocation,” Winfield says in the recorded message.

Basky and commissioners discussed operational scenarios the Bureau could use. He contrasted “constrained” operations — an approach that would not allow Lake Powell to drop below about 3,500 feet elevation — with “unconstrained” operations that would permit lower Powell elevations but keep deliveries to Mead higher. Basky warned that constrained operations could cause sharper declines at Lake Mead and increase the risk of lower deliveries to the Lower Basin.

Local and procedural items: The commission watched the mayor’s video and heard from one public speaker, Rich Crocken, who asked about upcoming commission openings for 2026. The commission approved the previous meeting minutes (motion to approve; second not specified) and adjourned later in the meeting.

Votes at a glance: The commission moved to approve the minutes as presented; one commissioner stated on the record that they had not attended the prior meeting and did not vote. The minutes motion passed. A motion to adjourn was seconded and carried with no nays recorded.

What the commission heard but did not decide: Basky outlined potential cuts, compensation levels and the political negotiations among the seven basin states; those were discussion items and not formal actions of the commission. The commission received the update and the coalition materials for information and did not take further formal direction in the meeting.

Upcoming events mentioned at the meeting included a town council regular session on Sept. 17, a council meeting Oct. 1 at 6 p.m., the Southern Arizona Water Users Association forum Oct. 10 at the Tucson Convention Center from 8–11 a.m., and the next WADA Utility Commission meeting on Oct. 13 (time given as 5 p.m.).