Post-election survey: Sahuarita research finds cost concerns, low ground game contributed to Proposition 403 defeat

Haley Devoin, the town’s public information officer, and consultants from NewPoint Marketing and Market Research presented the results of a post-election survey analyzing why voters rejected Proposition 403 and what the town learned for future bond efforts.

The survey was conducted May 10–June 8 with 611 respondents (95% confidence interval, margin of error ±4%). Respondents reported 72% voted no on Proposition 403 and 28% voted yes. NewPoint found high awareness — 98% of respondents said they knew a proposition was on the ballot — and that respondents correctly identified the major projects that had been included on the measure.

The consultants told the council the top reasons respondents gave for voting no were concerns about cost and recent increases in property tax assessments, inflation, and a desire to vote on components separately rather than a single package. Mary Roley, CEO of NewPoint, summarized: “The top 4 reasons that people gave, most common related to other costs, cost increases, and taxes.”

NewPoint also highlighted demographic and neighborhood breakdowns: Rancho Sahuarita provided the largest share of responses (about 45%), followed by Quail Creek (17%) and Madera Highlands (10%). Among respondents, about 98% identified as homeowners; 35% reported children at home and 64% did not.

Consultants and staff pointed to outside timing and local context as significant influences. NewPoint said county tax invoices and higher property valuations, plus the addition of the Santa Rita Fire District and contemporaneous school district levies on tax notices, likely made voters less receptive. Roley said the ballot was printed in August and mailed in mid-August, while the county tax invoices mailed in September, compressing time for outreach between those two events.

Presenters emphasized the absence of an organized citizen advocacy effort — commonly called a “ground game” — as a meaningful factor. Roley said: “We didn't have a ground game… It's key to have a ground game. It's key to building trust to have people hear from their neighbors.” She cited research ranges that show a bond’s chance to pass can be roughly 55–70% with vocal citizen support but under 20–35% without advocacy.

Town Manager Shane (first name used in meeting) and council members framed the exercise as a learning opportunity. Shane said putting a question to voters is the only way to find out community appetite and to inform future packages. Councilmember Diane Morales, who later nominated herself as a legislative ambassador candidate, asked about the 10% of respondents who said they did not trust town government; NewPoint said that level was comparatively low by municipality standards and suggested it was not evidence of broad distrust.

The presentation included comparisons to a 2024 pre-ballot survey of 1,985 respondents (margin of error ~2.1%), which had shown higher expressed willingness to support parts of a bond in principle. NewPoint recommended refining project packaging, improving timing relative to county tax notices, and investing in neighborhood-level advocacy and outreach if the town pursues future bonding.

Council members asked follow-up questions and thanked consultants for the analysis; no formal council action was taken on the presentation itself. The council’s next regular meeting was noted as Monday, Sept. 22.

Ending: The town manager and consultants said the results will guide how the town approaches future capital-funding proposals, including messaging, project selection and the need to build citizen advocacy ahead of a future ballot measure.