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Goldman economist warns tariffs, immigration shifts will slow GDP; flags higher near‑term recession risk
Summary
Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist briefed trustees on macroeconomic risks: large tariff increases and tightened immigration policies will likely shave growth in 2025, raising near‑term recession risk while complicating the Fed’s policy path.
Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist presented a macroeconomic outlook for trustees that emphasized three policy shifts shaping the near‑term U.S. economy: large tariff increases, a front‑loaded fiscal package and tightened immigration policies.
The economist said the tariff increases implemented this year are unusually large and, in isolation, could subtract roughly one percentage point from GDP at their peak because tariffs act like a tax that raises consumer prices and lowers real income. He cautioned those tariff costs…
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