Consultants tell Chatham County board sewer upgrades in 2027 could unlock thousands of homes and roughly 1,000 more students

Consultants from the Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRI) and its ORED group told the Chatham County Board of Education on Sept. 8 that scheduled sewer and water upgrades expected in 2027 in Pittsboro and Siler City will remove constraints on residential development and could produce a substantial influx of new students.

ORED senior staff told the board the district’s development inventory includes 51 pending residential developments beyond Chatham Park, totaling more than 10,000 homes still to be built. “A big number you’ll always wanna remember here in the coming years, 2027, is when sewer improvements are expected to be completed in both Pittsboro and in Siler City,” said Mr. Godfrey of ORED. He said opening that capacity would let approved projects move forward quickly and could drive a high magnitude of student growth.

Why this matters: the district uses out-of-capacity tables — school-by-school forecasts that compare building capacity with projected membership — when planning repairs, additions and boundary changes. Consultants told the board that, depending on how quickly lots and units come online after infrastructure is activated, the county could see roughly an additional 1,000 students across the district over the next decade in a feasible scenario in which the “pipeline” opens up.

Key findings and methods ORED explained its sources and methods: an inventory of publicly proposed and approved residential developments compiled in GIS; developer-provided timing for buildout of major projects (Chatham Park supplied phasing through 2040); and demographic inputs including resident live births and recent membership trends. The consultants said resident live births remain the strongest single leading indicator for kindergarten enrollment and noted a sustained jump in births in 2022.

Consultant Mr. Dudley said the 2022 live-birth increase was notable: “When we saw the 10% jump that occurred in 2022, that jumped off the page to us.” The team also described a modelling approach for estimating students from new subdivisions: timeline-of-lot-completions from developers plus student-per-lot rates derived by proxy from prior local developments.

Chatham Park and county-wide growth Consultants highlighted Chatham Park as a major driver — modeled in seven phases through 2040 — but said growth is countywide: Pittsboro, Siler City and other corridors show proposed subdivisions waiting for sewer hookups. Mr. Godfrey and colleagues emphasized that while Chatham Park is large, the district’s projected increases are not solely dependent on it.

Board questions and local details Board members pressed for precision on school-level numbers. Board member Ham pointed to a Moncure projection discrepancy (Moncure’s projection shown as 177 in one table versus 138 in another and a day‑9 count of 168) and said small schools can show large percentage swings with a few students’ differences. Consultants explained different projection methods (month‑1/day‑9 membership accounting versus the January snapshot used for ORED’s long‑range forecast) and said the district will reconcile once month‑1 Average Daily Membership (ADM) is locked.

Timing and uncertainty The consultants repeatedly cautioned that timing is uncertain; construction is underway on some sewer projects and “it’s difficult to determine right now” whether the work will finish early or late in 2027. They presented two forecast paths: a lower line reflecting the baseline out‑of‑capacity table and a higher, entirely feasible scenario if sewer/water constraints are lifted — the latter representing roughly 1,000 additional students districtwide over 10 years.

Board action and next steps No policy or funding actions were taken at the Sept. 8 meeting; the presentation was informational. Board members asked staff and the consultants to continue frequent updates, to reconcile projection differences at month‑1 ADM, and to bring back data to inform any capital planning, boundary review or contingency budgeting that the board may consider.

Ending The consultants closed by urging the board to watch infrastructure schedules and developer timing closely and to update planning assumptions at least every two years. The board’s next regular meeting is scheduled for Oct. 6, 2025.