TWC CFO projects Sept. 30, 2025 unemployment trust fund balance below statutory floor; ETI transfer expected

Chris Nelson, chief financial officer for the Texas Workforce Commission, presented the commission with a final 2025 projection for the state unemployment trust fund and described steps the agency will take under state statute if balances fall below the legal floor.

"We started the year with $1,570,000,000," Nelson said, adding staff were projecting $2,100,000,000 in revenue and projected benefits paid through Sept. 30 of $3,197,000,000. "All that leaves a projected balance of $992,000,000 as of September 30," Nelson said. He told commissioners that projection is about $358,000,000 below the statutory floor for tax‑rating purposes.

Nelson cited Section 204.123 of the Texas Unemployment Compensation Act and said that, per that provision, TWC is directed to transfer funds from the ETI account to the trust fund when projections show the balance will be under the floor on Oct. 1. He said that transfer would be approximately $456,800,000 and that the calculation includes $68,000,000 in appropriated revenue from the legislature recorded on line 1.04 of staff materials.

Nelson said staff will finalize benefits paid for the year after the September figures are closed and will then work with the tax department to calculate base tax rates, likely presenting those calculations in early December. Commissioners did not take action at the meeting on tax rates; Nelson's presentation was informational.

A commissioner thanked Nelson and his staff for monitoring the fund; no formal vote was recorded on the projection itself in the transcript.