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Experts differ on trip-generation method for proposed Nicodemus Road daycare; applicant figures used in analysis
Summary
Traffic testimony showed the applicant's consultant used student counts rather than building square footage from ITE guidelines to estimate peak trips for a proposed daycare; experts said students typically produce more consistent trip rates while the square-footage method gave higher but more variable results.
At a Carroll County Board of Zoning Appeals hearing, the project’s traffic witness explained why trip-generation estimates for the proposed daycare were calculated using student counts rather than building square footage from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) manual.
Mr. Wilson said the building consists of roughly 3,200 square feet on each of two levels for a total of about 6,400 square feet, and that the ITE manual provides a trip rate of roughly 11 trips per 1,000 square feet. "Doing the calculation for that over the course of the full 6,400 square foot building would result in approximately 70 trips during the morning," he testified. He added that the ITE square-footage variable in this case would be inflated by the second-floor activity area, which is not used for classrooms.
Wilson told the board he used student counts—60 students provided to him by the applicant—as the variable for the study because, he said, trips per student typically have a lower standard deviation and better reflect typical day-care activity. He acknowledged he was compensated by the applicant and that, between the two reasonable choices, he selected the one that generated fewer trips: "I did. And, again, that's primarily because that's the better standard deviation in what ITE would suggest we use," he said when asked whether he had chosen the lower-resulting method.
The witness also confirmed that staffing and incidental vehicle trips (for staff, vendors, deliveries) are included in the trip-rate counts because driveway counts used for day-care trip-generation studies capture all vehicles entering and leaving the site during peak hours.
Board members asked about baseline traffic volumes on Nicodemus Road. Mr. Wilson said he used a historical average daily traffic figure from county data and noted there are standard growth factors for projecting ADT forward; when asked for a 2027 ADT the witness referenced a figure of 1,637 discussed in testimony but said he had not applied long-range growth in the study yet and would use newer counts as part of future work.
No vote or decision on the application occurred during the hearing.
