Utility study: electrification could more than triple load; county urged to plan substations, rates and staffing

County utility staff briefed the County Council on Aug. 19 about an electrification study prepared under contract with Burns & McDonnell that examined the impact of increasing electric vehicles, all‑electric homes and other electrification on Los Alamos County’s distribution system.

The study modeled three adoption scenarios and identified a range of technical, operational and financial implications. Under the study’s fastest-adoption scenario, electric load could rise by roughly 44 megawatts — more than triple current peak native load — creating near‑term needs for major infrastructure upgrades.

Highlights and implications: - Delivery cap from Los Alamos National Laboratory: County staff said the county takes delivery of bulk power from a LANL substation under a 20 MVA contract and that available allocation is approaching that 20 MVA limit. That constraint increases the likelihood of needing a new county substation or expanded allocation from LANL. - Aging infrastructure: Staff said much of the White Rock underground distribution cable is older than its expected 30‑year life; many components will need replacement for age-related reliability rather than simply for load growth. A recent pad‑mounted switch failure underscored near‑term urgency. - Customer impacts: Many older homes have service panels under 200 amps; moving to electric appliances and vehicle chargers may require household electrical upgrades costing in some cases an estimated $20,000 per property. - Capacity and cost: Substation construction and transformer upgrades are major cost drivers. New transformers can have long lead times — staff estimated new transformers may take 95–100 weeks to deliver — and used transformers are an interim option but carry risk of earlier failure. - Recommended actions: Burns & McDonnell recommended improving the county’s MillSoft electrical model; pursuing volt‑var controls and interconnection standards for rooftop solar; planning an Eastgate Substation design (a budget line for design exists); investigating battery energy storage to reduce peaks; and advancing time‑of‑use and demand rates and demand‑side programs to shift load off peak. Staff also recommended staffing changes and workforce transition planning because key utility expertise will retire soon.

Direct quote from the briefing: “Los Alamos County Department of Public Utilities currently owns a substation here in White Rock. But in Los Alamos, we take delivery from a Los Alamos National Labs substation with a contract amount of 20 MVA. And we are approaching that 20 MVA limit,” said Dennis Asley, electric engineering manager.

Councilors asked about timeline and costs. Staff said design for a new substation could take a year and that a new substation could cost multiple millions; staff also said time‑of‑use billing software will not be available until the county’s customer information/advanced metering systems support it, with a planned slow rollout no sooner than July 1 (next implementation window discussed in the presentation). No formal council vote or policy decision was taken at the Aug. 19 briefing; staff said the study’s findings will inform future rate and capital planning discussions.