City staff present Maxfield housing study: Duluth needs about 6,000 units by 2030, rental market shows tight vacancies

City of Duluth housing staff presented the findings of an updated housing needs analysis by Maxfield at the Committee of the Whole, saying the study shows population growth, rising rents and strong demand for both market-rate and subsidized housing.

Tom Church, senior housing developer for the City of Duluth, and Lena Fan Cook, housing planner, summarized the 200-page study during a roughly 20-minute presentation and fielded questions from councilors. Church said the study finds Duluth “is growing,” estimating the city added about 500 people between 2010 and 2020, about 1,300 between 2020 and 2025 and projecting another 1,300 between 2025 and 2030. City staff said Maxfield projects Duluth’s population will exceed 90,000 by 2035.

The study estimates Duluth needs roughly 6,000 housing units of all types over the next five years (through 2030), the presenters said. That five‑year total includes about 1,000 for-sale units and thousands of rental units across market-rate, workforce and affordable segments. Church told the council the 10-year demand in Duluth itself is “just under 9,000 units” when senior and general-occupancy products are included.

The presenters broke the five-year rental demand down by affordability. Fan Cook reported the Maxfield rental survey found median market-rate rent in Duluth is $1,443 per month and that vacancy among market-rate stabilized properties is 1.8 percent — far below the commonly cited healthy vacancy rate of about 5 percent. She said vacancy in affordable units is even lower, about 1.1 percent, and that 53 percent of renters are cost‑burdened, paying more than 30 percent of income for housing.

Fan Cook also said Maxfield found the five newest market-rate properties in the city have an average stabilized rent of $1,792, roughly 13 percent higher than the citywide median, underscoring that newly built units tend to be more expensive.

Church highlighted the senior population as the fastest-growing demographic subgroup and said Maxfield estimates roughly a 50 percent per-unit “return” for senior housing — meaning building senior units can free up other housing in the single‑family market as older households move to age‑restricted units.

The presenters noted construction activity: staff reported the city issued about 1,800 building permits from 2018–2024 (about 230 per year on average) and issued 621 certificates of occupancy in 2024. Church said the city has issued very few townhome permits in recent years — zero in 2022–2023 and only about nine since 2020 — and urged expanding the variety of housing products, including townhomes, condos and co‑ops.

Councilors asked about methodology, bedroom-size medians and how senior housing affects the broader market. Church said Maxfield’s methodology uses population forecasts, American Community Survey and other market and employment data; he also said Maxfield consultants will provide a more detailed methodology presentation to the council in the fall.

Next steps and timing: Church and Fan Cook said staff will prepare a city action plan in response to the study, that the Housing Trust Fund will address the findings in October and that Maxfield will present in person in September. The presenters told council they expect at least 300 new units to receive certificates of occupancy in the coming six months and announced a Duluth Housing Strategies Conference scheduled for Nov. 14.

Why it matters: The study signals continued demand across price ranges and age segments, and staff said the combination of very low vacancies and rising median rents points to pressure on both renters and prospective homebuyers.

Ending: Staff encouraged councilors and residents to attend future presentations and to submit technical questions for the Maxfield team ahead of the September session. The full Maxfield report and supporting rental survey data are available from city housing staff; staff offered to follow up with bedroom‑size medians and a list of recent developments on request.