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Revalidation shows Commission's risk tool retains moderate predictive power and no clear racial accuracy gap
Summary
Staff presented a statistical revalidation of the Commission's risk assessment that used 2015–2016 sentencing cohorts and a three‑year conviction-based recidivism outcome; the AUC was about 0.65 (previously 0.66) and staff reported no meaningful difference in predictive accuracy for Black and White individuals in the validation sample.
Commission research staff presented results of a formal revalidation of the Commission’s sentencing-time risk instrument. The staff said the revalidation used people sentenced in 2015–2016 and tracked convictions that resulted from arrests within three years as the outcome measure.
The senior statistician reported that the instrument’s Area Under the Curve (AUC) for the original development sample was 0.66 and 0.65 in the…
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