Strafford County meets with NREL as solar techno‑economic analysis advances

Strafford County commissioners met with staff from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on a conference call to review a technical assistance project that models possible solar installations for the county.

NREL staff said the work is a proof‑of‑concept techno‑economic analysis using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory assumptions to simulate one of four array options identified in a March 2022 solar feasibility review report. "NREL is completing a techno economic analysis to model the possible energy resilience intervention configurations with a strong focus on solar for Stratford County," Emily, the NREL project lead, said.

The nut graf: the analysis is not finished and relies on several local data points the county must supply. NREL asked for more detailed information about ownership, financing (loan terms or third‑party ownership), electricity rate structure, system tilt and tracking assumptions, and whether the county intends to claim tax incentives. The county said it will provide answers and try to move quickly because of an upcoming change to federal tax incentives.

NREL modeler Ambari Shnag described the current work as an early simulation. "The simulations that we have done, it is far from the finished product. It is rather a straw man," Shnag said, adding that the team used defaults from NREL's Annual Technology Baseline where local inputs were missing and plans iterative refinements with county data.

County commissioners pressed several practical items NREL had asked about, including whether to use fixed‑tilt panels or tracking (articulating) systems, panel lifespans and degradation, and whether the county or a private developer would own the array. Commissioners discussed prior work done for Rockingham County and suggested contacting Chuck Nickerson there for details about a recently completed local project.

A county commissioner noted timing concerns tied to tax incentives: "the federal government is getting rid of the private sector tax incentive here next by next July," and said that if the county wants private‑sector developers to capture tax credits, the project timeline will need to accelerate. The county also told NREL it wants both a private‑vs‑public ownership analysis and options tuned to the county's current and projected loads.

NREL said it has sent a detailed, itemized list of data requests to County Administrator Diane Lager and staff member Ray Bauer and is awaiting responses on the gaps. The laboratory said it has been modeling one of the four site options from the 2022 feasibility report to date and is using SAM's commercial financial models (PVWatts/other) as a starting point; NREL will test alternative financial models once the county clarifies financing and ownership.

Commissioners raised project‑level considerations beyond the immediate financial model, including end‑of‑life plans for panels and siting constraints (the county discussed potential use of landfills and other sites), and possible uses of generated power for municipal buildings and affordable housing.

Next steps the participants agreed on included the county providing the missing data items to NREL, arranging a follow‑up conference call that the county hopes will include Chuck Nickerson from Rockingham County, and targeting a decision timeline that would allow the county to issue an RFP if it chooses private‑sector ownership. NREL emphasized it will iterate its SAM models as the county supplies more detailed inputs.

Votes at a glance: the commission unanimously approved the minutes of the Aug. 28 meeting at the start of the session; no formal vote on the NREL analysis or project direction occurred during the call.

Ending: County staff and NREL will exchange the outstanding data requested by NREL and schedule follow‑up discussions. Commissioners said they hope to firm direction by January to preserve potential financing and procurement options.