Rochester Public Schools to launch Ninth-Grade 'Freshmen on Track' effort after analysis links early activity, reading and attendance to graduation odds

Rochester Public Schools Superintendent Kent Pickell said the district will launch a Freshmen on Track initiative this fall after a district analysis identified several ninth‑grade indicators that strongly predict four‑year high school graduation.

The presentation to the school board on July 15 combined a statistical review by Dr. Peter Ruck, the district’s director of research and evidence, and an implementation update from Angie McCandridge, who led the district team that attended the National Freshman Success Institute. Ruck told the board that “the single most, impactful characteristic that a student can have in the fall quarter of ninth grade to predict their on‑time graduation is participation in any school related activity… it increases their odds of graduating by about a 140%.”

Board members said the analysis gives the district actionable early‑warning indicators to guide interventions. “That finding is a correlation, not a causation,” Pickell said, cautioning the board not to treat extracurricular participation as a guaranteed fix while endorsing the direction of the work.

Why this matters: Rochester’s four‑year graduation rate for the class of 2024 has held roughly between the mid‑80s and 90 percent, district staff said, but…