Rochester Public Schools to launch Ninth-Grade 'Freshmen on Track' effort after analysis links early activity, reading and attendance to graduation odds

Rochester Public Schools Superintendent Kent Pickell said the district will launch a Freshmen on Track initiative this fall after a district analysis identified several ninth‑grade indicators that strongly predict four‑year high school graduation.

The presentation to the school board on July 15 combined a statistical review by Dr. Peter Ruck, the district’s director of research and evidence, and an implementation update from Angie McCandridge, who led the district team that attended the National Freshman Success Institute. Ruck told the board that “the single most, impactful characteristic that a student can have in the fall quarter of ninth grade to predict their on‑time graduation is participation in any school related activity… it increases their odds of graduating by about a 140%.”

Board members said the analysis gives the district actionable early‑warning indicators to guide interventions. “That finding is a correlation, not a causation,” Pickell said, cautioning the board not to treat extracurricular participation as a guaranteed fix while endorsing the direction of the work.

Why this matters: Rochester’s four‑year graduation rate for the class of 2024 has held roughly between the mid‑80s and 90 percent, district staff said, but disparities persist. District leaders said targeting supports at the start of high school — a time of major transition — will let teams intervene earlier than prior strategies that focused on later grades.

What the analysis found: Ruck described a binary logistic regression that tested multiple fall‑of‑ninth‑grade characteristics while holding other factors constant. The model showed housing instability and low‑income status (measured by free/reduced‑price lunch) were associated with lower odds of graduating, while proficiency on the eighth‑grade MCA reading assessment and consistent attendance were associated with higher odds. Ruck emphasized that the statistical model does not allow simply adding percent changes across factors; rather, it reports each factor’s independent association with the outcome.

How the district will act: McCandridge summarized how the district advanced from initial interest to a near‑term launch. Over the past year Rochester principals and a 15‑person district team participated in a codesign with Cradle to Career and attended the National Freshman Success Institute. Next steps include reconvening the team in August to define the operational “on‑track” indicators, readying dashboards for school teams, and beginning school‑level team work during the fall term.

The Freshmen on Track work will link closely to the district’s attendance pilot. Pickell framed behavior, attendance and grades — the “BAG” indicators — as an early‑warning flashlight: “Those are early warning indicators that help us identify those students in their first semester of ninth grade who are at risk of being off track,” he said.

Board questions and staff clarifications: Directors asked whether other measures — student sense of belonging (Panorama survey), mental‑health indicators, and out‑of‑school activities — could be incorporated. Ruck said Panorama results were not used in the regression because the survey is self‑reported and coverage at high school is incomplete; he noted the district can include those measures in future work. McCandridge said the district currently counts only school‑sanctioned activities recorded in the student information system; community or club participation outside school would not appear in the current activity measure unless documented.

Equity and intersectionality: Board members repeatedly raised that students experiencing multiple barriers (poverty, housing instability, low attendance, minority race/ethnicity) are most at risk and that supports must be layered. Ruck and Pickell agreed: the model isolates individual factors statistically, but in practice students often experience multiple, compounding risks.

Timing and scope: Staff said the institute model includes follow‑up work and a return visit to observe Chicago schools implementing the model; the district’s initial on‑site team work has three summer days of training followed by weeks of local implementation before returning to the institute. Staff also said the district is exploring middle‑school and elementary‑school early‑warning pilots, but the Chicago model and the immediate data work focus on ninth grade because of the dramatic shift students encounter entering large high schools.

What the board directed: The board did not take a formal vote on policy changes. Staff were directed to reconvene implementation teams in August, prepare operational dashboards and early‑warning processes, and return with progress updates and any resource requests as the pilot unfolds.

Ending: District leaders said the Freshmen on Track launch aims to keep ninth graders engaged, improve attendance and increase on‑time graduation. Staff committed to bringing metrics and progress reports to the board as the program moves into the school year.