Review panel backs October update as best current assessment, asks for fecundity revision and a prompt benchmark

A supplemental review panel convened virtually to evaluate an updated stock assessment for widow rockfish recommended that the October 2025 assessment be treated as the best scientific information currently available for management, but asked the stock assessment authors to rerun the model with a species-specific length–fecundity relationship and requested a near-term benchmark assessment to address outstanding uncertainties.

The panel’s recommendation followed extended discussion about contrasting results from models presented in August and October 2025. Panel members said the October update produced lower estimates of depletion but, counterintuitively, slightly higher estimates of overfishing limits (OFLs) and projected allowable catch in 2027. The panel flagged differences arising from a shift in the assessment’s reproductive metric — from weight-based spawning biomass to spawning output (eggs) — and from a higher internally estimated natural mortality (M) in the October model.

Why it matters: The choice of biological units and parameter values changed the way the model values older, more fecund fish and altered management advice for future catch limits. Panel members and advisers warned that these technical changes could produce substantially different catch advice even when overall biomass and many diagnostics look similar, and they recommended additional runs and documentation to make the pathway from assessment inputs to OFL clear to managers.

Discussion highlights

- Fecundity and depletion: Andre (panel member) noted that “the fecundity change … is not trivial,” arguing…