Rounds tells Maricopa supervisors federal cuts, tariffs raise odds of slowdown; urges housing fixes

Jim Rounds, an economist with Rounds Consulting, told the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors during a meeting that federal spending reductions and tariffs have increased the odds of an economic slowdown and urged county leaders to use the period to address housing affordability and shore up budgets. “We went through a period where we added $10,000,000,000,000 to our national debt in about 4 years,” Rounds said, adding that the subsequent pullback in government spending (the “G” in GDP) makes the next several quarters harder to read.

Rounds said headline GDP figures are currently difficult to interpret because of timing issues related to imports and one-time policy shifts. He told supervisors that some data revisions and federal policy effects mean economists may not identify a recession until after it has begun. “If I was going to be in 1 state during the next downturn, it would be…