Consultant: Old Town Portsmouth trade area shows $428 million leakage, supports more dining and specialty retail

Consultant Tripp Muldrew told the Portsmouth Economic Development Authority on Aug. 18 that a custom trade area for Old Town Portsmouth represents roughly $4.6 billion in annual retail sales and about $428 million in unmet consumer spending — "leakage" the city could potentially capture.

Muldrew, of Barnett Muldrew, said he drew a trade boundary centered on 421 High Street that excludes most of Norfolk and includes parts of Suffolk and Chesapeake to better reflect where Old Town attracts customers. He said Claritas retail-sales data placed the trade-area market at about $4.6 billion, with consumer expenditures near $5.0 billion and a delta of roughly $428 million.

Muldrew told the authority that, using conservative capture assumptions, the trade-area leakage translates into supportable space and retailers in several categories. Examples he gave: a modest independent specialty food and beverage store of about 7,700 square feet; roughly 12 new sit-down restaurants; room for 6–8 specialty retail storefronts; a small number of home-furnishings and sporting-goods outlets; and demand for boutique clothing.

Why it matters: Authority members and city staff said the snapshot gives them a clearer list of target categories to pursue as they inventory vacant storefronts, engage property owners and recruit tenants for Old Town and the Link District.

Details and supporting figures - Trade area market: about $4.6 billion in retail sales; consumer spending nearly $5.0 billion; leakage ≈ $428 million. - Home furnishings: $21 million leakage; a 20% capture produces about $4.2 million in potential sales, roughly 14,200 square feet of independent-store space (Muldrew used conservative industry standards for downtown independent retail). - Specialty food and beverage: ~$15.4 million leakage; a 20% capture could support a ~7,700-square-foot independent specialty food store. - Clothing and accessories: large leakage shown but low capture assumption (5%); Muldrew cautioned that apparel faces strong competition from e-commerce and outlet malls. - Sporting goods: about $30.7 million leakage; potential for larger-format or multiple specialty stores (Muldrew referenced several subsegments such as team-sports, outdoor/sportsmen, and hiking/cycling/outdoors categories). - Specialty retail (gifts, art, upcycled merchandise): ~$34 million leakage; potential capture estimated at about $6.8 million (roughly 6–8 additional small stores). - Dining and drinking places: ~$61 million leakage; at a 20% conservative capture Muldrew estimated room for up to 12 sit‑down restaurants (not drive‑through concepts).

Context and next steps Muldrew emphasized the study is a snapshot based on Claritas data and a drawn trade area; he said the analysis is about "80% numbers and 20% professional judgment." He recommended a deeper supply-side review using building permit and zoning pipeline information to refine capture rates and phasing. City staff said they have begun an inventory of vacant and underused storefronts in Old Town and plan targeted outreach to property owners and prospective tenants using the market categories identified in the snapshot.

Quotes "This trade area is a $4.6 billion market — that delta is opportunity," Muldrew said during his presentation. "I love seeing 12 restaurants and 6–8 more specialty retail stores as realistic opportunities for Old Town," Muldrew added.

Ending Authority members praised the snapshot as actionable input for marketing and tenant-recruitment work. Staff said they will use the findings to target property owners and to coordinate follow-up analysis that incorporates local permitting and pipeline data.