Enrollment study: McPherson schools project further decline, underused buildings and budget gap

McPherson Public Schools district officials presented a demographer’s enrollment study to the Board of Education showing that falling live births and lower “yield rates” from new housing are contributing to a projected districtwide enrollment decline and underused school buildings, and that the district is entering the year with a budget shortfall tied largely to those enrollment changes.

The demographer’s analysis showed 290 live births in McPherson County in 2019, of which the district enrolled about 110 students in kindergarten; by comparison, a 2014 birth cohort was 53 births larger and produced about 185 kindergarten entrants in that year. The consultant’s forecast presented a range for future kindergarten capture of roughly 108 to 143 students depending on where families go after leaving the hospital. The district’s total enrollment peaked near 2,477 in 2018–19, was 2,112 last school year and is projected to fall to about 2,000 by 2029–30.

The study also flagged a sustained decline in yield rates — the number of school-age children generated per 100 housing units — for single-family and mobile-home units compared with mid-decade levels. Even with roughly 550 housing units identified as potential growth over the next decade, the demographer advised that the lower yield rates make it unlikely those units will restore earlier enrollment levels.

District staff summarized how cohort flows will affect grade levels over the next five years: a relatively large group currently in upper elementary grades will swell middle-school enrollments for a few years, then continue through to high school, but districtwide totals are expected to trend downward and then stabilize.

The consultants also calculated functional building capacity and current utilization. The district’s estimated functional capacity is about 3,100 students. Current utilization percentages presented in the meeting were just over 76% at elementary sites, about 73.8% at the middle school and about 63.2% at the high school. The demographer’s report noted some built-but-unused spaces (for example, storage areas at Eisenhower Elementary that could be repurposed as classrooms) and said a separate facilities assessment by architects will inventory unfinished or nonleveraged spaces.

Board discussion moved quickly to financial implications. District staff said lower enrollment already reduced revenue: a projected decline in the general fund of roughly $300,000 and a drop of about $150,000 in the supplemental general (local option budget) for the coming year. Before other adjustments, the district had identified roughly $740,000 in potential savings by holding or reassigning positions and trimming operational budgets; but increases in costs — including a roughly $130,000 increase in property insurance and a large mandatory increase in special-education expenditures of about $614,000 — result in an expected operating deficit entering the year of about $452,000, the administration told the board.

Superintendent-level comments at the meeting framed the deficit as manageable in the short term because the district holds cash reserves, but they said the board and community must plan for multi-year structural changes if enrollment remains lower. Board members discussed options that include forming task forces or stakeholder groups to explore repurposing buildings, program consolidation, targeted recruitment or housing strategies to attract families, and line-by-line budget reviews. Several board members cautioned that roughly 80% of the budget is staff costs, so personnel choices would carry significant consequences.

Board members and staff said the district will publish the enrollment study and follow it with the forthcoming facilities assessment by architects; district staff also noted they can pull student exit codes to analyze where families are moving when they leave the district.

Formal routine business at the meeting included disposition of minutes and payment-of-bills items that were approved by voice vote; the board also moved into two executive sessions to discuss contract negotiations with teachers under the Kansas Open Meetings Act. (See “Actions” below for formal motions recorded.)

The board scheduled follow-up steps: release of the enrollment study to district leadership and the public, publication of the facilities assessments when available, continued budgeting work tied to the state review process and ongoing community engagement on long-range facility options and strategic priorities.