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Consultants project up to 6.9 million annual park visits at full build‑out; board stresses interim activation and transportation access
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Summary
A consultant team reported preliminary visitor projections and programming priorities for Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Island parks, projecting 4.4–6.9 million annual visits at build‑out and urging planning for interim activation and ferry/bus access.
TIDA staff and consultants presented preliminary findings on July 9 from a visitor projections and nonprofit‑partnership study for Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Island parks, including low/medium/high visitation scenarios that range from about 4.4 million to 6.9 million annual visits at full build‑out (projected year 2042 in the study).
Jessica Look, senior planner with TIDA, introduced the project, which is led by 1 Treasure Island with consultants Blue Point Planning and ORCA Consulting. Lauren Schmidt of Blue Point and Al Shaclet of ORCA described methodology and early findings: the team used comparable parks, Rec and Park data, and mobility/visitation data to create typologies (neighborhood parks, sports parks, urban farms, plazas, gardens/trails, dog parks) and then produced seasonal, daily and hourly visitation projections.
Key findings presented included: build‑out annual visitation between 4.4 million (low) and 6.9 million (high); a July peak month estimated at roughly 633,000 visits; average weekday daily visitation in the tens of thousands and weekend daily visitation rising by about 56% over weekdays; and an estimated peak concurrent park population of about 12,000 people during the 1–3 p.m. window on a July weekend at build‑out. The consultants emphasized that different park types will draw different market segments: neighborhood parks and dog parks will be used primarily by island residents, while plazas, gardens and urban core parks will attract more Bay Area visitors and tourists.
Board members focused on near‑term activation, programming and transportation access. President Faye San and Director Linda Richardson urged the consultants and TIDA to emphasize interim activation (events, mobile programming and marketing) for the next several years before large facilities come online. Richardson suggested the study consider arts programming and conservancy/trust models to support long‑term activation and fundraising. Several commissioners said ferry and alternative transit capacity are vital to realizing visitation projections.
Consultants said they will deliver a final report in September and refine recommendations on nonprofit partnerships, programming models, transportation implications and near‑term activation strategies.
