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Consultant projects modest district growth, secondary enrollment driving increases
Summary
RSP and Associates told the USD 383 board the district is likely to add roughly 90 students over five years, with most growth at middle and high school levels; the firm cited slower housing production and lower birth rates as constraints on elementary enrollment.
Jenna Wallace, a consultant with RSP and Associates, presented a 2024–25 enrollment analysis to the Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education, telling the board the district is forecast to grow about 1.3 percent over five years — roughly 90 students — driven mainly by increases at middle and high school.
Wallace said the district’s secondary grades are expected to increase while elementary enrollment stabilizes or declines slightly. “The report that I'm gonna go through tonight, it's pretty lengthy. It's pretty comprehensive, but I'm gonna keep this more high level,” she told the board as she introduced the study’s methodology and key takeaways.
The analysis breaks the district into more than 400 planning-area “building blocks” to track household-level changes and better predict where students live and will enroll. Wallace said a combination of fewer live births and a slowdown in housing construction are limiting kindergarten growth, while cohort gains and in‑migration at older grade levels are fueling secondary gains. She noted recent enrollment rebounds after the COVID-era dip and said the district has seen four years of growth following that drop.
Key findings highlighted in Wallace’s presentation include: - Districtwide projected growth of about 1.3% over five years (an increase of roughly 90 students), with middle and high school enrollment rising and elementary enrollment slightly decreasing. - A reported slowdown in housing production: roughly 160 units built in 2021 versus about 50 units in 2024, and a pipeline of about 2,500 potential future units of which about 1,000 are in active stages. - Student yield varies by housing type: RSP estimated approximately 32–33 students per 100 single‑family units, about 9–10 students per 100 multifamily units, and roughly 30–32 students per 100 mobile home units for the district’s recent patterns. - Bluemont Elementary was identified for above‑average near‑term growth, in part because active developments in its irregular boundary include more than 300 housing units in active stages.
Board members pressed for clarification on several points. Kurt asked why middle and high school totals appear different; Wallace explained that middle school covers three grades (6–8) while high school covers four (9–12), contributing to the difference in totals. Christine and Jamie raised concerns about middle‑school capacity, and Wallace said the projected middle‑school growth would place some schools near capacity and recommended the district monitor utilization and consider programmatic responses.
Wallace also underscored that household turnover and the affordability and age of housing affect student yields: newer, more expensive units tend to generate fewer school‑age children while older, more affordable inventory shows higher yields in certain neighborhoods.
Board members and administrators said they plan to use the report in staffing, facility planning and cross‑jurisdictional conversations about workforce housing. Several trustees also asked RSP to share the full presentation with city and county partners to support coordinated planning.
RSP urged the board to track kindergarten roundup and the twelfth‑grade cohort annually, saying the relationship between incoming kindergarten classes and graduating seniors is a key indicator of future districtwide trends.
The board did not take any formal votes tied to the presentation during the meeting, but trustees indicated they would incorporate the report into fall planning and budget discussions.
