State demographer: Saint Paul’s post‑2010 growth has leveled off as population ages and diversifies

Susan Bauer, Minnesota state demographer, told the Finance and Budget Committee of the Saint Paul City Council that Saint Paul’s rapid population growth during 2010–2020 has slowed and that larger regional and national demographic trends are shaping the city’s near‑term outlook.

Bauer said the city grew about 9% between 2010 and 2020 (compared with about 12% for Minneapolis) but that growth has “leveled off” in recent years. “Rapid growth really appears to have leveled off, in the last few years,” Bauer said, citing U.S. Census Bureau and Metropolitan Council estimates showing reduced growth and in some cases small declines for Hennepin and Ramsey counties since 2020.

The presentation tied slower growth to three broad factors: lower natural increase (births minus deaths), domestic out‑migration from Ramsey County, and continued—but not always sufficient—international migration. Bauer said aging is a primary driver: Minnesota and many Midwestern states are older on average, which reduces natural increase because there are fewer births and more deaths. “When you have a county or a state or even a city that is older or aging, it's much harder to grow from births,” she said.

Why it matters

Bauer framed the…