State demographer: Saint Paul’s post‑2010 growth has leveled off as population ages and diversifies

Susan Bauer, Minnesota state demographer, told the Finance and Budget Committee of the Saint Paul City Council that Saint Paul’s rapid population growth during 2010–2020 has slowed and that larger regional and national demographic trends are shaping the city’s near‑term outlook.

Bauer said the city grew about 9% between 2010 and 2020 (compared with about 12% for Minneapolis) but that growth has “leveled off” in recent years. “Rapid growth really appears to have leveled off, in the last few years,” Bauer said, citing U.S. Census Bureau and Metropolitan Council estimates showing reduced growth and in some cases small declines for Hennepin and Ramsey counties since 2020.

The presentation tied slower growth to three broad factors: lower natural increase (births minus deaths), domestic out‑migration from Ramsey County, and continued—but not always sufficient—international migration. Bauer said aging is a primary driver: Minnesota and many Midwestern states are older on average, which reduces natural increase because there are fewer births and more deaths. “When you have a county or a state or even a city that is older or aging, it's much harder to grow from births,” she said.

Why it matters

Bauer framed the demographic change as relevant to budgets and services: an aging population shifts demand toward health care and long‑term services while a slower labor force growth affects employers across sectors. “Any growth that the state does have will need to come from people moving here from other states or from other countries,” she said, noting that labor force growth is projected to be very small over the next one to two decades.

Key findings and local context

- City growth, 2010–2020: Bauer reported Saint Paul grew about 9% during that decade. She said Minneapolis grew about 12% for the same period. - Ramsey County: Census Bureau estimates show a recent net loss from domestic migration; international migration partially offset that loss. Bauer referenced a roughly 10,000 net population loss figure for Ramsey County tied primarily to domestic migration (city‑level international migration estimates are not released by the Census at the city level). - Aging and labor force: The first baby boomers turned 65 in 2011; Bauer said retirements since then have constrained labor force growth and will continue to do so through about 2029 as the cohort ages. She said labor force projections show nearly flat worker counts for the next 10–20 years absent larger in‑migration. - Age structure: Saint Paul is younger than Minnesota overall, with a comparatively larger share of people in their 20s and 30s; Bauer said this gives the city some internal potential for growth even as regional aging exerts pressure. - Diversity: Using 2019–2023 averages, Bauer said about 49.4% of Saint Paul residents were people of color (BIPOC) in the latest estimates and that Saint Paul has the largest Asian population of any city in Minnesota (the estimate given was 54,970 for Asian residents). She said roughly 75% of children in Saint Paul are children of color. - Foreign‑born residents: Bauer said about 18% of Saint Paul residents are foreign born, roughly double the statewide rate. - Poverty: Bauer reported about 14% of Saint Paul residents live at or below the federal poverty line and said the poverty threshold understates the number who lack resources to meet basic needs; she estimated a rough “basic needs” threshold could imply about 28% of residents face increased financial strain. - Housing and commuting: Bauer said nearly half of Saint Paul’s housing units are in multiunit buildings (about 50%), compared with about 30% for the metro and roughly 25% for the state. Owner‑occupied housing was estimated at about 52% for Saint Paul versus about 72% statewide. She also reported that about 20% of Saint Paul workers were working from home in 2023, up from about 5% pre‑pandemic.

Questions and follow‑up

Committee members asked for more detailed city‑level tables and census‑tract maps for specific race and birthplace groups. Bauer said the Metropolitan Council and the Census Bureau publish tract‑level detailed race and ancestry tabulations and offered to provide follow‑up materials, including tract maps for groups such as Burmese/Karen and Hmong concentrations.

No formal committee actions or votes were taken on the presentation. Committee members said there would be follow‑up requests to Bauer’s office for additional data.

Bauer cautioned about limits in the data: detailed race group counts reflect people who reported those identities and are not always fully comparable to past data; she described the 2020 census as the first time many detailed race categories were published at scale.

The committee did not adopt policy or direct staff to take an immediate fiscal action during the meeting; council members flagged budgeting and workforce implications for future discussion.