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Survey finds safety concerns drive high school choices; enrollment forecast study launched to refine projections
Summary
FM3 Research told trustees that safety is the top issue driving high‑school decisions for many families; MGT was hired to produce neighborhood‑level resident and enrollment forecasts to replace earlier, higher‑level projections.
The board received two linked presentations about community perceptions and enrollment forecasting on June 25: FM3 Research summarized a district‑commissioned community survey, and MGT (the demographic consultant) described the enrollment forecast work the district will use to update projections used for staffing and facilities planning.
FM3 survey highlights: Kurt Veil of FM3 and colleagues reported results of a dual‑mode survey of parents and guardians in the district and feeder areas. Key findings: - Positive impressions of teachers were strong across respondent groups, but parents flagged safety as the single largest negative when asked about high schools. FM3 reported that safety was the top concern mentioned in open‑ended responses. - Among parents of children in grades 5–8, about 75% said they are likely to enroll their child in a Santa Rosa City Schools high school; about 21% said they were unlikely to do so. The undecided cohort was substantial, which trustees and staff said left room to influence decisions through outreach and program adjustments. - A majority of respondents said increased School Resource Officer (SRO) presence would make them more likely to enroll their child in district high schools; FM3 reported roughly 59% said it would make them more likely, including 47% who said “much more likely.” - Responses varied by subgroup: parents responding in Spanish, lower‑income households, and some racial/ethnic groups were more likely to say they intend to enroll in district high schools; white parents and higher‑income groups were somewhat less likely.
MGT enrollment forecast: Esau Gioia of MGT outlined a multi‑phase approach to refresh the district’s forecasts. MGT will produce both resident student population forecasts (best suited for long‑term facility planning) and enrollment forecasts (used for short‑term staffing). The approach includes: - Geocoding student residence data and mapping neighborhood ‘‘study areas.’' - Re‑examining birth rates, student generation rates for new housing and planned residential development with local city planning departments, and cohort survival (migration) by neighborhood. - Analyzing feeder districts’ enrollment and development patterns, a step MGT staff said was under‑emphasized in the district’s prior forecast.
Why it matters: Trustees and staff said accurate, neighborhood‑level projections are essential this year because staffing was ‘‘locked’’ in March and the district must prepare for the official day‑10 enrollment count that informs revenue. The district also needs to understand where students might be electing non‑district options so it can target outreach and program investments.
Board reaction and next steps: Trustees and the superintendent asked for follow‑up analyses, including: breakdowns by feeder district, more transparency around the survey invite list and responses, and follow‑up polling to measure changes after program or communication changes. MGT said it will deliver resident and enrollment forecasts and update them after the first 10‑day counts in September/October; staff will use the results to inform the December first‑interim budget and the multi‑year projection.
Speakers in the presentations included Kurt Veil and Lucia Del Pupo of FM3, Greg Medici (SCO partnership lead), and Esau Gioia of MGT; trustees asked clarifying questions about methodology and local variations.
