Demographic study shows sustained enrollment decline; district outlines facility, leasing and marketing plan

Glendale Elementary School District heard the results of a demographic study and housing analysis June 26 and discussed a multi‑phase plan to align facilities and resources with projected enrollment declines.

Applied Economics consultant Rick Bremer told the Governing Board the district’s school‑age population and enrollment have been shrinking for years and that choice programs and education savings accounts (ESAs) have contributed to the decline. Bremer said the district’s enrollment drop has outpaced the fall in the school‑age population and that the district’s “capture rate” (the share of children living in the district who enroll in district schools) has fallen from historically higher levels to roughly the mid‑50s percentage range.

The study included fine‑grained mapping of students by 75 subdistrict grids, a time series of student points back to 2002 and two projection sets (district level and small‑area). Bremer said housing construction will add units in the next five years but that the type of housing matters: recent multifamily…