Demographic study shows sustained enrollment decline; district outlines facility, leasing and marketing plan

Glendale Elementary School District heard the results of a demographic study and housing analysis June 26 and discussed a multi‑phase plan to align facilities and resources with projected enrollment declines.

Applied Economics consultant Rick Bremer told the Governing Board the district’s school‑age population and enrollment have been shrinking for years and that choice programs and education savings accounts (ESAs) have contributed to the decline. Bremer said the district’s enrollment drop has outpaced the fall in the school‑age population and that the district’s “capture rate” (the share of children living in the district who enroll in district schools) has fallen from historically higher levels to roughly the mid‑50s percentage range.

The study included fine‑grained mapping of students by 75 subdistrict grids, a time series of student points back to 2002 and two projection sets (district level and small‑area). Bremer said housing construction will add units in the next five years but that the type of housing matters: recent multifamily construction produced fewer school‑age children per unit than older apartment stock, and Applied Economics estimates about 1,200 new units likely to be absorbed in the district over the next decade, producing roughly 940 occupied households. The firm estimated up to 4,100 potential housing units could be developed at full buildout; the consultants expect about 65% of near‑term absorption to be single‑family units.

Superintendent Segata Jones presented next steps the district will pursue to address the projected decline: immediate staffing and department audits, a marketing and retention campaign targeted to neighborhoods with high out‑migration, long‑term lease or repurpose options for underused properties to generate recurring revenue, and a timeline for facility consolidation decisions. The superintendent said the district will conduct audits July 2025–February 2026, present closure/consolidation recommendations by January 2026, and, if approved, implement boundary changes and any closures by August 2027.

Board members pressed several operational points and underscored outreach to existing apartment complexes. Board President Martinez noted the district’s current capture rate and the need to “get those kids back,” and members emphasized attainable housing and community partnerships as parts of a retention strategy. Bremer and Kristen Bremer (residential development lead) described specific developments affecting enrollment patterns, including Legacy Place, Seasons at Trevino, Ambra and Bethany Grove, and a planned mixed‑use site (G 83) expected to deliver units within three to five years.

The consultants emphasized the largest driver of near‑term enrollment is parental choice: while demographic and housing inputs can be forecast, capture rate changes are harder to predict. Under the study’s base scenario the district could lose about 1,800 students over the next decade; under a more optimistic scenario the loss could be as low as about 700 students. Bremer said the range reflects uncertainty in parental choices and ESA/charter impacts.

The administration framed the proposals as actions to preserve financial solvency and maintain student services: (1) align staffing and school support to new school‑size thresholds; (2) pursue long‑term leases rather than sales to retain flexibility about use of proceeds; (3) launch targeted marketing to recover students attending neighboring districts or charters; and (4) audit vacancies and pursue lease requests with potential partners. Superintendent Jones said the district will provide quarterly updates to the Governing Board and adjust plans if enrollment trends change.

Board discussion included questions about where students living in the district attend school (the consultants’ ADM table showed Peoria Unified as a top destination), and whether new multifamily projects along Glendale Avenue will change capture rates. Bremer cautioned that newer luxury rental products tend to yield fewer school‑age children than older, more affordable apartments.

The meeting’s study session portion concluded without formal action; subsequent agenda items addressed policy and budget votes.