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Treasurer presents five-year forecast showing revenue pressures, deficit risk and potential levy timing
Summary
District financial staff presented a May update to the five-year forecast that shows near-term collection timing issues and a projected decline in ending cash balances without additional revenue. Staff signaled the potential for a November levy and discussed EdChoice voucher impacts and a possible 30% carryover cap in the state biennium budget.
District financial staff presented the board with the May update to the five-year forecast and highlighted revenue timing issues, ongoing expenditure pressures and a multi-year deficit risk that the treasurer said could require a voter-approved levy.
The presenter said general property tax receipts comprise about 73.3% of the district’s overall revenue and that collection timing from the county pushed some receipts into later reporting, producing a one-time reduction versus the projection. The treasurer reported current-year general property tax collections at roughly $49.997 million and said planning-level projections assume roughly $50.0 million for fiscal 2026 and beyond pending county collection timing and the biennium budget outcome.
Other revenue lines outlined in the presentation included unrestricted state foundation payments and casino tax receipts, restricted grants (English learners, gifted, economically disadvantaged, career tech and student wellness funds), and a state reimbursement line for homestead/rollback. The presenter said no increases were assumed for restricted grants or state-share lines pending the biennium budget.
On the expenditure side, the forecast attributes about 54.8% of expenditures to personal services and about 23.8% to employee retirement and insurance benefits; the presenter provided a fiscal‑year estimate for benefits of about $17.015 million and used contract-step and COLA assumptions for portions of the forecast period. Purchase services and supply lines were adjusted to reflect one-time flows that had appeared in the current year, and staff reduced purchase-services projections modestly for fiscal 2026.
The treasurer said the district’s ending cash balance is projected to decline in the forecast window and that, without additional revenue, the projection shows a negative ending balance approaching the end of fiscal 2029 (the presenter referenced an estimated negative balance of approximately $24.9 million at the end of 2029). For that reason, staff said they are preparing a levy for board consideration and potential inclusion on the November ballot; the levy amount and ballot language were not finalized and were not included in the forecast.
Board members asked for detail on enrollment trends and EdChoice (voucher) impacts; the forecast materials included a historical five-year enrollment table and an EdChoice comparison showing expansion effects (the presenter said EdChoice participation in the district rose from 14 students under the older rules to 478 under expanded eligibility). Several trustees discussed whether the district should join a statewide lawsuit challenging EdChoice expansion and other biennium budget provisions. Some trustees favored showing public support for affected districts and urging public pressure, while others expressed concern about litigation cost and uncertain outcomes.
The treasurer said the district is watching proposed biennium budget changes including a possible 30% carryover cap, which staff said could penalize fiscally prudent districts by limiting carryover balances used for long-term planning.
Ending: The treasurer said the May forecast would be on the agenda for formal approval at the next meeting and invited board members to submit follow-up questions.
