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City economist reports steady GRT growth; retail lags, construction up
Summary
City economist Christine Borner told the council that March receipts and the full quarter show a 4.2% growth for the quarter and a 2.8% cumulative growth for the fiscal year-to-date; overall FY26 general fund revenue was expected to grow about 4.4% over FY25 estimates.
City economist Christine Borner told the City Council the latest gross receipts tax (GRT) data for March produced a 4.2% growth rate for the quarter, bringing cumulative fiscal-year-to-date growth to 2.8%.
Borner said retail GRT performance remained weak compared with the prior year (down around 1% year-over-year for the sector), while construction showed stronger gains (approximately 5% growth). In cumulative terms, the total business-sector growth (excluding changes in the city's hold-harmless adjustments) was reported at about 3.8% for the most recent quarter, Borner said.
She told the council the administration continued to expect total FY26 general fund revenue to grow around 4.4% over FY25 estimated actuals and that the budget currently being considered assumed that level. Borner and councilors discussed downside risks including national consumer confidence declines, elevated inflation and the city's relative vulnerability to federal-transfer changes.
Councilors asked about local employment impacts of federal layoffs and how last month's revisions to consumer-confidence indicators could affect local revenues. Borner said some federal job losses may not yet appear in employment statistics and that projections had not materially changed since the budget estimates were set.
Ending: Borner said the administration would continue to monitor revenue performance and would report regularly as FY26 execution progresses.
