Consultant warns Wayzata enrollment likely to plateau after mid-2030s, board hears

Hazel, the presenter, told the Wayzata Public School District Board of Education at its May 27 work session that multi-scenario enrollment models show growth slowing and likely plateauing after the 2034–35 period.

The projection matters because a sustained plateau could leave the district with underused buildings and require different decisions about where to add capacity, how to use open enrollment and whether to delay or reduce capital construction. "There are a lot of ifs in all of this, but it suggests to me that after 02/3435, enrollment is going to kind of plateau out," Hazel said during the presentation.

Hazel described the model inputs and alternate scenarios the district requested, including variants for kindergarten capture rates, net migration into suburban Hennepin County, and different yields for new housing types. She reported that under a high-kindergarten, high-migration…