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ISERS staff reports market outlook: tariffs, imports and early‑quarter rebounds shape portfolio results
Summary
Staff summarized macroeconomic moves through Q1 and early Q2 2025, tying portfolio performance to a late‑February pullback, a surge in imports that depressed first‑quarter GDP, and subsequent tariff‑related volatility and policy responses.
Brian, ISERS investment staff, presented a market overview and the fund’s quarterly performance to the Imperial County Employees’ Retirement System board on May 21, 2025, describing the sequence of events — late‑February weakness, tariff shocks, an import surge and a partial market rebound — that produced mixed results across asset classes.
The summary told trustees why the quarter’s headline GDP and market numbers diverged: first‑quarter U.S. GDP contracted modestly in part because of an unusually large pre‑tariff surge in imports, while risk assets outside the U.S. outperformed as the dollar weakened and investors priced in…
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