Payette National Forest warns of above‑normal fire potential; urges early county coordination

Payette National Forest fire managers told the Valley County Board of Commissioners on June 9 that a combination of rapid snowmelt, above‑average spring temperatures and dry fuels points to an above‑normal wildfire season across the Payette and parts of the northern Great Basin.

The briefing, led by Patrick Shawn, fire staff, and McCall District Ranger Jess Osmondson, reviewed last year’s high lightning activity and this year’s current conditions. “This is the ERC or the energy release component. … how hard it is to put out fire once it starts,” Shawn said, explaining the metric the Forest Service uses to estimate resistance to suppression. He said high ERC values last July corresponded with a spike in ignitions and greater need for heavy aircraft and mechanized equipment.

The presentation put local conditions in regional context: the Payette recorded more ignitions than its 20‑year average last year (118 total starts in the dispatch boundary, 88 on Payette lands), and multiple weeks at elevated national planning levels strained available resources. “We went into planning level 4 and 5 pretty early,” Shawn said, describing periods when national resources were scarce. He summarized the Forest Service’s expectation that, based on current snow‑water equivalents and seasonal outlooks, staffing and aerial assets will be in high demand through September.

Why it matters: county officials and emergency managers rely on timely threat assessments to decide where to direct limited suppression and protection resources. Forest Service staff emphasized early, frequent communication so county emergency management and elected officials can understand tradeoffs when resources are thin.

Key details from the presentation: - Regional outlook: the Forest Service’s three‑month forecast calls for above‑normal temperatures and below‑normal precipitation in June–August across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, increasing fire potential into July and beyond. Shawn said the Payette and much of the basin are “primed for fire starts.” - Last season’s context: unusually high lightning activity drove more than the region’s average ignitions; Payette experienced 88 on‑forest starts and several large incidents (Lime Point and Oxbow were highlighted), and the district spent more than 90 days at national planning levels 4–5. - Staffing: the Forest Service reported roughly 78% staffing of positions dedicated to fire work this season (they characterized that as “about, maybe 2% below 78, maybe”), with recent hires improving coverage but gaps remaining in aircraft dispatch and some engine captain qualifications. - Aviation and tools: managers described the value of large helicopters (a Super Puma that can carry eight personnel and large buckets), a short‑haul helicopter based at McCall that can insert and extract crews via rope, and aerially delivered crews; short‑haul flight time under the county search‑and‑rescue agreement was described as roughly $1,100–$1,200 per hour. - Community partnerships and staffing surge options: staff recommended encouraging Rural Fire Protection Association (RFPA) signups and other pre‑registration routes for local contractors and volunteer equipment so they can be mobilized quickly, and to clarify deadlines and sign‑up windows for those programs.

County follow‑up and direction: the Forest Service offered to convene a meeting with the county sheriff, emergency manager and other local emergency responders to explain short‑haul helicopter capabilities, operational limits and how costs are handled through the Forest Service’s search‑and‑rescue agreement. Commissioners and staff also discussed public outreach to recruit RFPA volunteers, equipment owners and other local partners for surge support.

Forest staff repeatedly framed the season as a coordination problem: “we might have four bullets left — where are we gonna put those?” Shawn said, urging early prioritization discussions between federal and county partners. The briefing closed with a request to keep County Emergency Manager Juan Boni and the Forest Service in close, rapid communication as starts occur so both sides can align responses and resource requests.

Looking ahead: Forest Service managers said they expect to revisit the seasonal picture in November to report actual outcomes; in the near term they asked the county to help publicize volunteer registration avenues and to plan the proposed technical meeting on helicopter use and agreements.