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CDCR projects modest five‑year decline in prison population; Prop 36 effects treated as evolving
Summary
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation told a Senate budget subcommittee that spring projections show a 3.1% net decline in state prison population through June 2029 and that assumptions for Proposition 36 admissions and parole outcomes were adjusted and remain subject to revision as implementation proceeds.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) Office of Research, told the Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 that CDCR's spring 2025 population projections forecast a net 3.1% decline in the state prison population between June 30, 2024, and June 30, 2029.
Jefferson said CDCR bases its projections on historical court commitment data and incorporates the estimated effects of legislation, policy and process changes in place through Dec. 31, 2024. She described two adjustments the department made in this cycle tied…
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