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CDCR projects modest five‑year decline in prison population; Prop 36 effects treated as evolving
Summary
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation told a Senate budget subcommittee that spring projections show a 3.1% net decline in state prison population through June 2029 and that assumptions for Proposition 36 admissions and parole outcomes were adjusted and remain subject to revision as implementation proceeds.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) Office of Research, told the Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 that CDCR's spring 2025 population projections forecast a net 3.1% decline in the state prison population between June 30, 2024, and June 30, 2029.
Jefferson said CDCR bases its projections on historical court commitment data and incorporates the estimated effects of legislation, policy and process changes in place through Dec. 31, 2024. She described two adjustments the department made in this cycle tied to Proposition 36 implementation: a phased increase in new admissions beginning in January 2025 and a change in how post‑release supervision is expected to be used.
Specifically, Jefferson said CDCR now assumes admissions related to Prop 36 will rise gradually from January 2025 through February 2026 and then level off, to account for local implementation timelines and individuals choosing mandated treatment options. She said expected lengths of stay under Prop 36 remain at about 11 months, but the department reduced its estimate for releases returning to parole supervision from 20% to 3%, with the remainder anticipated to go to post‑release community supervision.
The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) told the committee it had raised concerns in January that the administration's initial methodology likely overstated prison and parole populations. LAO analyst Caitlin O'Neil said the May revision's downward adjustments now look reasonable and the LAO recommended approving the revised estimates.
Jefferson emphasized the department will continue monitoring Prop 36 implementation and said CDCR expects its projections to improve as more data become available. The subcommittee chair and members pressed for ongoing updates as implementation proceeds.
Why this matters: Changes in admissions and post‑release supervision can affect prison capacity planning, staffing needs and budgeting for custody and community supervision. CDCR and the LAO told the committee the estimates are reasonable for now but remain contingent on early implementation data.
The department provided no final determination of facility closures tied directly to the projection changes during this hearing; closure planning was discussed separately.
