Transportation Authority presents SFTP 2050+ update, warns of long‑term revenue and ridership declines

San Francisco County Transportation Authority staff on May 20 presented an update to the San Francisco Transportation Plan (SFTP) 2050 Plus, saying the city’s travel patterns have changed sharply since 2019 and that projected transportation revenues over the next 30 years have dropped by about 12%.

Assistant Deputy Director for Planning Suwanee Cho said the SFTP is the authority’s 30‑year investment plan and that the update uses recent household travel data to set a financially constrained program and a separate “vision” portfolio of potential future funds. “The San Francisco Transportation Plan is the 30 year investment plan for our transportation investments,” Cho said.

The update cites a 41% decline in trips to, from and within San Francisco compared with pre‑pandemic levels, a shift toward remote work and growth in deliveries. Staff reported that the authority’s constrained investment plan is roughly $70 billion — about 12% less than the previous update — of which roughly $60 billion is committed to specific projects and uses and about $10 billion is discretionary. The vision plan holds an additional $15 billion in potential, not‑yet‑secured revenues.

Cho said staff assumed transit service levels at 2023 levels for the constrained plan but warned of a near‑term fiscal risk for transit agencies if new funding does not materialize. “We do assume that we will find solutions to this immediate crisis and that revenues will be available to support transit service at 2023 levels,” Cho said, adding that significant service cuts remain a possibility if revenues fall short.

The presentation breaks priorities into safety, transit operations, maintenance and discretionary programs. Staff said they will prioritize maintaining transit operations at 2023 service levels, then fund maintenance for transit and roadways, and reserve remaining discretionary funds for safer streets, major transit projects and freeway management.

David Long, who presented the West Side Network Study portion, said the West Side work will run in parallel with the SFTP and focus on 10–15 year concepts to improve east‑west access, walking and rolling, safe routes to schools, bike connections and electric‑vehicle charging infrastructure. “By 2050 transit corridors that serve west siders could experience crowding as they approach the downtown core,” Long said, and the study will develop five to 10 concepts to address priority needs and return for further feedback.

Commissioner Mandelmann said the plan’s constrained assumptions felt pessimistic and urged staff to include clearer, more visionary scenarios that show what would be possible with sustained state or federal support. Rachel Hyatt, deputy for planning, noted the document contains a financially constrained investment scenario and a separate vision scenario that includes the additional $15 billion in aspirational investments.

Staff outlined the public engagement program: an online survey (translated into Spanish, Chinese and Filipino), two virtual town halls on June 4 and June 7, community outreach meetings, and a draft plan expected next spring with a final report proposed in early 2026.

The presentation emphasized that if current travel patterns persist, the city risks more crowding on transit and congestion on arterial and freeway corridors — particularly the Bay Bridge and U.S. 101 — and that targeted investments will be needed to reach the authority’s goals for equity, safety, economic vitality and environmental sustainability.

The SFTP 2050 Plus update was presented as an information item; no formal action was taken at the May 20 meeting.