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Highland Lakes inch higher but drought outlook remains cautious, task force told
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Summary
Task force heard a status update that combined storage in Lakes Travis and Buchanan has ticked up to just over 1 million acre-feet (about 51% full) after recent rain, but NOAA and the U.S. Drought Monitor show continued drought risk and LCRA projections leave the utility planning for possible further declines toward DCP Stage 3.
The Water Forward Task Force heard an update on Highland Lakes inflows and storage that showed modest recovery after recent rain but left managers cautious about the summer outlook.
Task force staff reported combined storage for Lakes Travis and Buchanan had risen to just over 1,000,000 acre-feet, roughly 51% of combined capacity, following recent inflows and rainfall. Staff said May inflows remained below historical averages but exceeded 50,000 acre-feet for the month, helping offset prior losses. Officials noted that soil moisture in the basin can increase runoff response to additional storms, which could improve inflows if rain continues.
The task force’s presentation included U.S. Drought Monitor maps showing widespread severe drought in parts of the Colorado River basin and Travis County as of the most recent monitor update. National Weather Service/NOAA seasonal outlooks presented to the group indicated an ENSO‑neutral forecast with near-normal chances for precipitation through the summer; the meeting record states there was roughly a 74% chance that ENSO‑neutral conditions would continue through the June–August period.
Storage projections prepared by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) and shown to the task force use historical hydrology sequences to model a range of future outcomes. Staff said that under a median-path scenario combined storage could stay above about 750,000 acre-feet through summer 2025, but that more severe drought sequences could bring the system toward the 750,000 acre-foot threshold associated with Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Stage 3 in late 2025 or into 2026; staff emphasized planning for both median and severe sequences.
Why this matters: combined Highland Lakes storage directly affects Austin’s available surface-water supply and the timing of any water‑use restrictions or supply-stage responses. The update did not change policy at the meeting; it provided technical outlooks and urged continued conservation and monitoring.
The task force invited questions and then moved to the Q1 Water Management Strategy Implementation Report.
