Study presented to LA Health Commission links Measure ULA to drop in multifamily land sales and permits; estimates 1,900 fewer units a year

Shane Phillips, project manager of the Housing Initiative at the Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies (UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs), presented research on July 14 indicating that Measure ULA — the city’s progressive real‑estate transfer tax — is associated with a substantial decline in sales of parcels with multifamily redevelopment potential and a corresponding drop in permits for new multifamily units.

Phillips told the Los Angeles City Health Commission that, using assessor and permit data and a difference‑in‑differences approach comparing the City of Los Angeles to similar jurisdictions in Los Angeles County, his team found an excess 52% decline in sales of parcels above the $5 million threshold after Measure ULA’s implementation in April 2023. "What this does say from my perspective is that ULA is reducing sales of parcels that have strong multifamily development potential," Phillips said.

Why it matters: the researchers estimate that the observed decline translates to roughly 1,900 fewer multifamily units permitted per year in Los Angeles among projects not receiving public subsidies; about 170 of those lost units would have been income‑restricted for extremely low income households under local programs. Fewer new units can put upward pressure on rents and prices and reduce housing options at multiple affordability levels.

Key technical points and findings

- Measure ULA basics:…