CTA finance staff to prepare three 2026 budget scenarios as revenue outlook tightens

Chicago Transit Authority finance staff told the board on July 9 that system-generated revenues were positive in May but that fare and pass receipts remain slightly behind the year-to-date projection, requiring multiple budget scenarios for 2026.

Tom (CTA finance staff) briefed the board on May results, saying fare and pass revenue for the month came in ahead of budget and that non-fare-box revenue — driven in part by investment income — has been “robust.” He reported the month’s system-generated revenue was positive to budget by $3,900,000 and ahead of last year’s monthly result by about $5,100,000; year-to-date non-fare-box revenue has helped offset a small negative variance in fare and pass revenue. Tom told the board total operating expenses for May were about $9,000,000 positive to budget and that, through May, operating expenses were about $29,500,000 positive to budget for the year-to-date period.

The board also heard that public funding sources remain uneven. Sales-tax collections were described as “robust” versus projections, and real-estate transfer tax showed a particularly strong May that kept that revenue category ahead of forecast.

Why it matters: CTA staff said the authority must produce multiple budget scenarios because of uncertain regional funding. The Regional Transit Authority (RTA) issued a budget call and asked each service board to prepare two scenarios; CTA will produce those and a third scenario the board has discussed as an “appropriate level of investment.” Tom said preparing two or three scenarios roughly doubles the internal work for budget staff compared with producing a single annual budget.

What the board was told: Tom outlined three scenario types: a business-as-usual scenario assuming funding sufficient to address the so-called fiscal-cliff number; a fiscal-cliff scenario assuming revenues do not materialize; and a third scenario describing the appropriate level of investment the board has requested. He also said the RTA has articulated a vision and plan that includes a $1,500,000,000 figure, though that figure was described as the RTA’s vision rather than a direct RTA instruction to CTA to assume that exact number in its submission. The board was reminded of the November 15 statutory deadline for passing a budget and of required public hearings that precede adoption.

Board questions and follow-up: Directors asked about next steps and milestones for compiling the scenarios; Tom said CTA is gathering submissions from departments now and will bring updates and higher-level discussions to the board as the scenarios are compiled. Director Carcajal (transcript reference) pressed for reminders on timeline and milestones, and staff said they will bring more detailed updates as the internal work progresses.

Bottom line: May produced favorable month-over-month revenue results, but CTA staff told the board that uncertainty in regional funding requires CTA to prepare multiple budget scenarios for 2026, and that work is underway ahead of statutory deadlines.