CREC adopts pupil counts, childcare and Medicaid caseload estimates and a revised consensus revenue forecast

State and legislative fiscal staff presented revised enrollment and program caseload estimates and the conference principals approved each recommendation by voice vote during the May 2025 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference in Lansing.

State Treasurer Rachel Eubanks opened the session noting the meeting is required under Public Act 72 of 1991. The conference then heard a sequence of technical presentations from the State Budget Office and the House and Senate fiscal agencies and voted on the staff recommendations.

Votes at a glance - K-12 pupil estimates (Fiscal 2024-25 through 2026-27): Approved by voice vote. Staff recommended a fiscal-year 2024-25 membership blend of 1,384,500 total pupils (1,230,000 in local districts; 54,500 in public school academies), a projected decline of about 6,400 pupils from FY 2023-24. The FY 2025-26 projection was about 1,377,800 and FY 2026-27 projection about 1,370,100. Pupil adjustment factors were 1.0049 (2025-26) and 1.0056 (2026-27). - Child Development and Care (CDC) caseloads and cost estimates: Approved by voice vote. Staff reported current-law CDC funding of $499 million and projected increases in caseload and cost: staff estimated about a 14% caseload increase to roughly 26,800 cases in 2025 and a 12.6% increase in cost per case; total CDC costs were projected at about $511 million in 2025 and a further rise in 2026…