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Peninsula study links rising homelessness to housing-cost inflation, recommends regional system changes
Summary
VM Advising told the Newport News City Council that homelessness on the Virginia Peninsula is increasing, driven in part by rapid rent and home-value inflation and limited multifamily zoning; the consultants recommended a seven-part regional strategy including system transformation, shared funding, and zoning changes.
VM Advising presented findings from the 2024 Virginia Peninsula Homelessness Study to the Newport News City Council at its May 13 work session, saying homelessness across the Peninsula is increasing and that Newport News and Hampton carry the largest burden.
The consultants told council members the study used quantitative data, system modeling, interviews, focus groups and two public forums to identify root causes, service gaps and projected need. "Since 2019, we've seen, very high rental and home value inflation," one presenter said, adding that the most affordable ZIP codes saw the largest proportional increases in housing costs.
The study projects a 15% increase in call volume to crisis lines from households that meet HUD's definition of literal homelessness and estimates more than 2,000 people experience homelessness in a given year on the Peninsula. The presenters reported that about 1 in 5 people experiencing homelessness has severe mental illness or chronic substance abuse, while a majority do not and therefore would benefit from rapid exits to housing.
The consultants outlined seven core recommendations: create a system transformation plan to guide structural change; strengthen regional commitment and require that housing resources be committed to a coordinated entry system; expand housing access for households with the most barriers and prioritize rapid rehousing and permanent supportive housing (PSH) projections before emergency health investments; develop a regional financial strategy; remove barriers to services with written standards and policies; develop an unsheltered response and regional outreach strategy; and pursue long-term housing solutions including zoning changes to encourage higher-density and missing-middle housing.
"We project a 15% increase in call volume from households that are considered literally homeless under HUD's definition," the presenter said during the briefing.
Council members responded with questions and local context. Councilman Frank Long said the study helped explain local demographics of people who are unhoused and emphasized nonclinical drivers: "I just wanna say, thank you for, the study that was developed. It was really in-depth..." He pointed to domestic violence, lack of affordable housing and job loss as major drivers identified by the report.
Presenters and staff cautioned that the datasets available limited some geographic granularity: they said the available system-performance measures and HMIS data did not reliably show whether people became unhoused inside Newport News or migrated from other localities and recommended follow-up with the planning council for more detailed jurisdictional tracking.
The study's authors and assistant city manager Ginger Blunt Moore told council members the full report includes system-modeling projections and that VM Advising would make recommendations available to council and participants for follow-up planning. No formal action or vote on the study recommendations occurred at the work session.
