VM Advising study finds rising homelessness on Virginia Peninsula, calls for regional system changes

VM Advising presented findings from its 2024 Virginia Peninsula Homelessness Study to the Newport News City Council on May 13, saying homelessness is increasing on the Peninsula and urging regional coordination and structural changes to the local homeless response system.

The study found rising housing costs since 2019, projected higher demand for crisis housing help, and uneven service coverage. "Since 2019, we've seen very high rental and home value inflation, and Newport News and Hampton experienced the highest proportional increases," said Sean Griffith, a consultant with VM Advising. The study projected a 15% increase in call volume to crisis hotlines for households meeting HUD's definition of literal homelessness and estimated more than 2,000 people experience homelessness on the Peninsula over the course of a year.

VM Advising said its analysis combined publicly available data, homeless response system data and geospatial zoning analysis, and incorporated interviews, focus groups and two public forums. The study identified root causes including housing affordability, job loss and domestic violence, and found that while 1 in 5 people experiencing homelessness on the Peninsula has severe mental illness or chronic substance abuse, the majority do not and need rapid re-housing and other housing supports.

Why it matters: the consultants argued that current service gaps and rising housing costs are likely to increase the number of households needing short-term and long-term housing assistance, and that regional alignment is needed to maximize limited resources.

Key findings and recommendations from the VM Advising presentation included: the need for a system transformation plan to guide structural change; a stronger regional commitment to a unified homeless response and to route housing resources through coordinated entry; expanding access for households with high barriers; and pursuing a regional financial strategy for the Peninsula. The consultants also recommended creating a regional outreach strategy, reducing punitive responses to unsheltered homelessness, and altering local zoning rules to allow higher-density housing and reduce single-family-only zones.

Griffith told council staff and members the team found limited multifamily development zones overall, though "the largest proportion of multifamily housing zones is in Newport News," a point the study flagged as the city carrying a substantial share of housing capacity on the Peninsula. The consultants also said system modeling was used to project needed beds for rapid rehousing and permanent supportive housing (PSH), and they recommended delaying emergency health-care investments until those housing system goals are met.

Councilman Long praised the study as "really in-depth," saying it clarified drivers of homelessness beyond substance use or mental illness and highlighted factors such as domestic violence and loss of employment. Council members asked whether the study could determine how many people accessing services were previously residents of Newport News versus people coming from outside the city; the consultants said the data did not allow that level of granularity. "At this moment in time, it's my understanding that HMIS does not have the ability to track that in a good way," Griffith said, and the team declined to draw definitive conclusions about migration given mixed anecdotal reports.

The presentation and its recommendations will be shared with council and the consultants said they would be available for follow-up questions after the meeting. The study cited HUD definitions, local Continuum of Care planning documents, point-in-time count data provided by the planning council, and HMIS (the Homeless Management Information System) as the primary data sources informing the analysis.

Next steps noted in the session: council members acknowledged the report and thanked VM Advising; no formal council action or vote on the study was taken at the work session.