OIG audit finds California prisons unlikely to evacuate within 72 hours; CDCR and Cal OES outline contingency plans

The Office of the Inspector General told a Senate budget subcommittee that most California prisons would not be able to evacuate their incarcerated population and staff within 72 hours in a large‑scale wildfire, flood or earthquake.

OIG summary and key findings

Inspector General staff summarized an audit of CDCR emergency preparedness that reviewed emergency operations plans at 30 prisons and the department’s coordination with federal, state and local entities. The audit found that while institutions maintain general emergency plans and internal site‑movement procedures, none of the plans the OIG reviewed contained detailed, practicable plans to move entire incarcerated populations outside prison gates within a 72‑hour window.

The OIG highlighted specific operational constraints:

- Transport capacity and vehicle reliability: CDCR’s transportation unit operates about 30 large buses (38 seats each) from three regional hubs and approximately 93 fleet vehicles total, but several buses have very high mileage (examples cited: vehicles with 533,000; 676,000; and multiple buses between 730,000 and 850,000 miles), raising concerns about reliability.

- Overcrowding: As of Dec. 31, 2024, prisons were operating at roughly 122% of capacity, which would complicate large‑scale evacuations.

- Inconsistent risk assessments: The audit found multiple assessment tools in use and inconsistent site risk ratings—even for adjacent institutions—making statewide planning and mutual aid more difficult.

- Limited headquarters review: CDCR headquarters collects site emergency plans but does not perform substantive, site‑specific validations of those plans, the audit said.

Why the 72‑hour benchmark matters

The OIG cited Department of Homeland Security guidance and past rapid escalation events—such as the 2018 Camp Fire that consumed 90,000 acres within a day—as reasons to consider the 72‑hour planning horizon reasonable and necessary for public safety.

CDCR and Cal OES responses

CDCR and the governor’s Office of Emergency Services emphasized existing capabilities and mutual aid relationships. CDCR officials said the department maintains:

- on‑site sheltering and internal evacuation procedures and conducts fire drills; - mutual aid agreements and 23 fire houses covering 29 institutions in partnership with local fire agencies; - a Department Operations Center and mechanisms to coordinate with Cal OES and federal partners when disasters escalate.

Cal OES staff said mutual aid and early coordination are critical in large events and that the state has been and will be a resource to support evacuations where needed. Cal OES urged early activation of evacuation plans and noted the practical challenges of moving thousands of people from facilities with security, medical and separation requirements.

Committee concerns and requested follow‑up

Several senators pressed CDCR and Cal OES for more detailed, site‑specific evacuation plans, clearer assessments of vehicle readiness, and an evaluation of which institutions—by location and vulnerability—should be a priority for mitigation or closure. One member asked for a written response to OIG recommendations and for agencies to estimate the costs and timeline to implement OIG audit items.

What the audit recommended

The OIG issued multiple recommendations, including improving site‑specific risk assessments, ensuring reliable transport capacity, standardizing emergency operation plans across institutions, and increasing substantive headquarters review and auditing. The OIG asked CDCR to report back on steps taken to implement its recommendations.

No immediate action or evacuations were ordered at the hearing. Committee members signaled they expect written agency responses and may pursue further oversight and possible statutory or budgetary actions in future hearings.