SFMTA updates board on Muni Metro capacity study; seeks to shape grantable capital package for next 10–15 years

SFMTA staff presented an update on the Muni Metro capacity study, which aims to develop a capital program over the next 10–15 years to both address aging infrastructure and add capacity where needed so the agency can pursue a Federal Transit Administration (FTA) core capacity grant.

Liz Bryson, the project manager, told the board the study evaluates two related problems: aging infrastructure (rail, traction power, stations, train control) and potential crowding driven by future growth. The study’s immediate objective is to assemble a grant‑ready capital package for the FTA core capacity program (which can fund up to 80% of eligible project costs and has historically supported multi‑hundred‑million to billion‑dollar projects) while producing longer‑term visionary recommendations.

Key strategies under study:

- Transit priority and signal improvements to reduce delay and maximize throughput. - Train control upgrades (including future phases of the TEACUP train control project) to increase reliable throughput in the Market Street subway. - State‑of‑good‑repair work with capacity benefits (traction‑power upgrades, station and rail replacement, overhead contact system work) so that repairs also enable higher capacity (for example, powering three‑car trains). - Evaluation of three‑car trains on specific corridors (e.g., the Outer Judah and segments of the M Ocean View) to gain up to 50% capacity per train. - Selective route restructuring as an operational option (for example surface operation of some lines) only under higher‑ridership scenarios; staff emphasized any restructuring would require extensive community outreach and not be decided as part of this study.

Bryson said the study uses multiple ridership forecasts (low, medium, high) to avoid making decisions based on a single projection, and will present draft recommendations for public review in the summer with a final report to the board likely in the fall. A principal rationale for advancing work now is lead time: FTA core capacity awards can take 4–6 years from entry into the pipeline to construction; entering the pipeline now preserves the city’s eligibility for future funding.

Staff outlined outreach that has already taken place: a community working group representing a cross section of Muni Metro riders, rider focus groups in English, Chinese and Spanish, and dozens of stakeholder meetings. Bryson said the study will not make immediate project approvals; any recommended projects would be followed by focused, place‑based community outreach before design and construction.

Board members asked technical questions about traction power, the TEACUP train control work, and whether the study assumes completion of already‑funded projects; staff confirmed the study models TEACUP completion and other reasonable study assumptions. Public comment generally encouraged moving quickly to increase transit priority, protect and expand subway capacity, and align work with planned housing growth.

Ending: Staff will issue draft recommendations for public review in the summer, incorporate feedback and return to the board in the fall with a final report and recommended capital package to position SFMTA for FTA core‑capacity funding opportunities.