Nassau County planning panel reviews draft Vision 02/1950; approves minutes

The Nassau County Planning and Advisory Committee on May 6 reviewed the draft Vision 02/1950 plan, discussed growth scenarios and employment-center designations, and approved draft meeting minutes for April 30 and Nov. 19.

Elizabeth Bach of the Nassau County Planning Department introduced consultant Melissa Beaudry of Half Associates, who summarized an 18–19 month planning process that produced a five-chapter draft plan and a new Chapter 5 of actions and recommendations intended to feed into the county's forthcoming comprehensive plan update. Bach said the county hopes to finish the adoption process with the Board of County Commissioners in June.

Committee members were presented three growth scenarios—"trend," "incremental" and "think big"—and a staff-preferred hybrid that emphasizes conservation areas, suburban residential growth around existing infrastructure, employment centers in southern and western Nassau, and a proposed "rural town successional" zone between Hilliard and Callahan. Beaudry described an interactive story map on the county's Vision 02/1950 website that allows the public to view the growth map, comment directly on the map, and take building-block surveys; the public comment period on the draft plan is open through May 23, 2025.

Committee members focused several questions on the plan's employment-center designations and the infrastructure needed to support job growth. A committee member asked how the plan modeled job creation within employment centers (small business, large business, timing). Staff said the plan works at a countywide, high level rather than a parcel-by-parcel basis at this stage; the character areas in the vision will be translated to land-use categories and densities during the comprehensive-plan phase. "These aren't land uses per se," Bach said. "The land use categories will be developed from these character areas."

Staff described the demographic assumptions used in the plan: the county is using a working assumption that population will roughly double over the next 25 years based on an approximate 2.5% compounded annual growth rate. Planning staff said that, under those assumptions, a hypothetical increase of about 100,000 residents would imply roughly 38,000 new housing units and a corresponding need for approximately 38,000 jobs to maintain a 1:1 jobs-to-housing ratio; staff characterized those numbers as countywide, high-level projections for the 2050 planning horizon.

The draft plan also includes exploratory ideas such as a transfer-of-development-rights program to move development pressure from conservation "sending" zones to designated receiving zones; staff said that concept is for further study in the comprehensive-plan phase. Beaudry noted that the team considered environmental constraints (wetlands, sensitive areas), existing municipal future land-use maps, infrastructure (water, fire service) and proposed mobility corridors when drawing the growth map.

Committee members and staff confirmed outreach steps: flyers were distributed at Shrimp Fest; consultants will staff a table at the opening of the beaches; and three town workshops or open houses are scheduled immediately before local council/commission meetings in mid-May (May 15, May 19 and May 20) for Yulee, Callahan, Hilliard and the City of Fernandina Beach. Staff said SB Friedman has produced a draft market and conditions analysis and that a preliminary financial analysis by SB Friedman will appear in the appendices on the story map; staff agreed to provide the draft appendices to committee members who requested them.

Votes at a glance: The committee voted to approve the draft PAC meeting minutes for April 30 and Nov. 19. Board member Morris made the motion; Board member Fendig seconded. Present members recorded as voting in favor were Henson, Harrison, Morris, Black, Cherryville and Chair Blue. Board member Browning was absent. The motion was approved.

Committee members emphasized that the plan is aspirational and that infrastructure constraints, market conditions and phased implementation will determine how closely future growth matches the preferred scenario. Staff said the actions and strategies in Chapter 5 are intentionally high level so they can be refined into actionable items during the comprehensive-plan stage required by state law.

The meeting record shows staff will bring the final draft and appendices to the Board of County Commissioners in June for further action and that the public comment period on the story map remains open until May 23, 2025. "We're finishing up this phase and moving into the adoption phase," Beaudry said. "Public input now will help refine the actions and strategies as we move into the comprehensive plan."