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Fox Canyon GMA delays Las Posas Basin optimization study; PAC urges United to run modeling
Summary
Staff updated the board on alternatives after the basin optimization yield study missed its Jan. 29, 2025 deadline. Staff recommended using United Water Conservation District model files to estimate yields; the Policy Advisory Committee urged waiting for United to run its model. The item was received and filed; no vote was required.
The Fox Canyon Groundwater Management Agency on April 23 received an update on the Las Posas Valley Basin Optimization Yield Study after the study missed its January 29, 2025 deadline.
The study, required by the Las Posas Valley adjudication judgment, is intended to determine operating yield, ramp-down rates and each water right holder’s annual allocation so that sustainable and operating yields align by water year 2040, agency staff said. Dr. Farai Kaseke presented the item and said staff initially expected United Water Conservation District to perform modeling but United did not commit to a firm schedule, prompting the agency to develop alternatives.
The agency presented three alternatives: two approaches that would add roughly three to six months to the schedule and a third option—building a new numerical groundwater model—that staff said would take 18 to 24 months and was removed from further consideration. The board’s preferred alternative is to estimate basin optimization yields using United Water Conservation District’s periodic-evaluation model files to run new scenarios, which staff said would move completion to April 2026 and allow the board to consider the study at its May 2026 meeting. Staff recommended the board receive and file the presentation.
Ian Pichard, chair of the Policy Advisory Committee, told the board the PAC’s view is that United ratepayers paid for the Coastal Plain model and that GMA ratepayers likewise paid for United to develop the files: "It seems to us a shame to pay a second time to have Dudek perform what can only be an approximation of what the United model might tell us," Pichard said, urging the board to wait for United to run the model even if it entails some delay.
Interim Executive Officer Arnie Ansel told the board staff would report the revised schedule in the next status conference statement to the court. Chair West and others noted the court has been reluctant in the past to move dates and said the agency needs a plan to respond to whatever the judge orders. Board members also flagged gaps in monitoring data; one board member said more and better monitoring wells around Mesa School are needed before an accurate base and optimization yield can be determined.
The board received and filed the update; no formal action was taken. Staff said the PAC and TAC were sent the revised schedule on April 3 and that committee recommendations are expected by May 9.
The study and schedule affect the initial operating yield the judgment contemplates; staff had previously asked the board to support an interim operating yield of 40,000 acre-feet while the study is completed.
