Braintree projects $175.7 million in operating revenue for FY2026; council warned of out‑year gaps and revenue risks

Braintree’s Committee of Ways and Means heard an overview of the mayor’s FY2026 revenue forecast on Thursday, May 1, in which Finance Director Mike Esmond said the town is budgeting $175.7 million in operating revenues and expects base revenue growth of about 3.2% excluding free cash.

The revenue forecast, Esmond told the panel, assumes roughly $3.9 million in year‑over‑year new tax levy revenue tied to Proposition 2½ growth and new growth, and a budgeted new‑growth assumption of $800,000 for FY2026. “We feel that the $800,000 forecast is a good approximation,” Esmond said, noting building permit trends through March that support the estimate.

Why it matters: the revenue picture will determine how departments are funded in FY2026 and whether the town needs to propose further revenue measures or program cuts in later years. Esmond and the auditor emphasized that state aid remains uncertain and that one‑time sources used in FY2025 should not be assumed recurring.

Key fiscal items and assumptions

- Operating revenues: $175,700,000 forecast for FY2026, described by Esmond as the town’s operating revenue baseline.

- Base revenue growth: about 3.2% year over year when excluding the use of free cash from FY2025.

- Tax levy and new growth: Esmond said the tax levy forecast yields about $3.9 million in new levy capacity for FY2026 reflecting Proposition 2½ (the normal 2½% growth plus measured new growth). The budget includes an $800,000 new‑growth assumption for FY2026.

- State aid: the budget assumes essentially flat net local aid (about…